Search results

If there’s no accord in the debt ceiling then we’ll have a sequester. The US will not default on its debt.

Looks like a rate swap on their Brazilian holdings

Sorry for misreading then! Pros use vwap as a benchmark price, and will usually run algos to track it (or buy more when price below, less when price above, etc. also known as a “best efforts”).

Just for clarity— I don’t think many people “trade” based upon broker research. Analysts put together fairly comprehensive research reports that allow you to figure out what is being priced into a stock. You can then develop your own view and compare it vs the street or specific analysts to...

I am a heavy user of analyst research, and primarily trade long/short equity. Feel free to ping me.

the result of swapping distributions is too blunt no? How useful is this for you in actual trading? Why not just plot market implied probabilities and work on your iv view?

Cauchy distributions (a la mondelbrot and others) were used to model options pre-black scholes (if you read black’s paper you’ll see why they chose normal vs Cauchy distributions). That’s why this post is dumb. You’re making it sound as if no one knew that BS used gaussian distributions and...

oh dude your analysis is like rudimentary excel stuff everyone did decades ago. Throwing around terms like cauchy or gaussian doesn’t make you sound smart. you should read through @destriero ’s journals to get a more sophisticated understanding of how options traders think about pricing and...

so you’re saying is that otm options are cheap and itm are expensive?

As mentioned by a few posters above, price moves as a function of the balance of volume. There is a lot of research showing that price and volume are cointegrated. Higher prices tend to see volume increase, while falling prices tend to see a decrease in volume. So a big move in price without...

Start with that. Ideally you want to monitor the covariance of the portfolio, evaluate through time (stressed by events or +/- x%), and determine what levels are appropriate.

I prefer ambient noises. If the office is nearly empty I will literally play an “office background” type of video.

Professional isn’t an indication of skill it just means you typically are using live quote data to sell something or for commercial use. I have my series licenses and run a fund so the exchanges consider me a commercial user and I have to pay more. If I just traded for my own account I would be...

Match a benchmark to your strategy or underlying systematic factor. For example if you are buying momentum stocks, track your performance against a momentum index.

who's jason perl?

just fyi, @destriero and @newwurldmn are experts in this topic... they are not your run-of-mill retail traders with a "system" lol. if you can't discern the wheat from the chaff you have a lot to learn.

Well then we’re in accord:thumbsup:

Study the market and learn how to analyze it effectively. Before you look at charts, you should read about the theory and practice of capital markets. Then, start to test your hypothesis against historical data. E.g. “what does performance look like on buying the dip and why does it vary over...

So you’re only capturing 200% on potentially +1,000,000% annual opportunity? I am sure you are making money but I don’t think what you’re describing is as simple as you claim.