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Are you trying to capture beta or find alpha?

What’s the alpha or risk premia you expect to capture? That will define your time horizon and trade duration. If your idea of swing trading is buying dips in an upwards trend, then you should know that the strong indicator of momentum is between the 6 month (~120 day) and 12 month return (~250...

Rising oil prices are a contraction in the purchasing power of consumers, but especially usd as oil is quoted in dollars. On that note, most of the inflation we are seeing is transitory (suntrader are you willing to bet that Baltic dry index remains at these levels for the next 5-10 years? If...

The stock market does care because relative interest rates impact gdp growth and corporate profits. The driver of stock returns are earnings - if you look at an income statement you’d realize that revenue would correlate generally with gdp growth, gross profit with inflation, operating margins...

No lol. Speculation of monetary policy is what happens in the rates market.

Nothing wrong with you trying to play a 50/50 game lol, but I find it funny that there is an expectation of profit from so many (when the actual ex-post result is losses due to paying the bid ask spread with no edge).

The savings glut is global-- it's not just a US problem. Everyone and their mother is advocating for infra spend, but the challenge is political.

It’s just amazing seeing how many people think you can actually go to the market and “scalp” a profit on a daily basis lol.

Yes you should follow a rules based system but make sure that each rule in your system is grounded in reality and is not stuff you hear on the internet.

Some countries see their debt being used as collateral in financial markets -- US treasuries, JGBs, Bunds, and to some degree Gilts, Swissy, etc. I think this is the point piezoe is alluding to. I generally disagree with MMT though some of what it says is an accurate description of how US...

Couple of things to note here: Inflation is a global phenomenon and requires coordination from central banks to manage-- when Volcker was Fed chair most developed economies were also experiencing stagflation lol. Powell has already stated that he is going to start tapering treasury and MBS...

The guy said Powell would never raise rates despite the fact that Powell did raise rates.

Are you an idiot? Jay Powell raised rates in 2018 as the economy was softening and had to cut rates in 2019 after giving a mea culpa. He doesn’t want to do that again — US (and global) economic data has pointed to softening and he’s not going to raise rates while that’s happening. If you look at...

It’s interesting. There was a push towards global trading at the beginning of the 21th century but it fizzled out.

Me

:banghead:

They need to get rid of the debt ceiling. It makes no sense. The government is not a household and doesn’t have normal budgetary constraints. This is a simple fact that most people are not educated about.

Bloomberg. If on a budget, R can do the job.

if you're good at math read up on Brownian motion and use that as your basis for price movements, then add layers like seasonality patterns ex-volume, volume trends/seasonality, volatility, measures of liquidity, and a filter for major changes in sentiment or news, etc. Then, you can conduct an...

I'm not sure if you got this, but you chose to create a scenario where 4/5 times (or 80% of the time) your trade breaks even or is profitable. That is what is driving your result (selection bias). This not an edge. What you should do is go out in the real world and see how many times you are...