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oh. no the fed is removing liquidity atm via tapering. when the fed buys assets like treasuries, it moves investors into more risky assets, as an indirect consequence. this drives us the stock multiple. there is a (somewhat complicated) relationship between interest rates and a stock multiple...

uhh i just skimmed through one of his videos and i'm pretty sure what he's saying is BS. unless he made a shit ton of money on GME/AMC etc. there's no way he has an 80MM+ account from his trading. trading a 2-5min chart is very capacity constrained because you only need like 5-25k to move a...

Right, AMZN would need to not just surprise but also raise guidance for the stock to really begin to rally. what does the fed have to do with it? haha thank you

Why have more than one position then? (hint: you are implicitly seeking the benefits of diversification -- unless you are just being randomby adding other stocks) also there's a difference between how diversification is preached and how smart managers actually apply it.

high covariance means you’re not benefitting from diversification. if you have a high covariance portfolio you should just pick the best stock. Ideally you would only add another position if it was not highly correlated. To some degree they will be correlated but that’s where you compare...

@deaddog It’s just that not all risk management approaches work all the time, so it’s best to look at risk across different dimensions. Probably the best and easiest risk management approach is to use reduce portfolio covariance. You can overlay your stops, but reducing covariance means your...

I feel generally ok about performance because I have limited my factor and industry exposures -- meaning that I derive almost all of my returns from selection (I am a good stock picker). ytd unlevered (censored acc number: factor risk: risk metrics:

Interesting video. I would say this his process is fairly retail (anyone with some money can call themselves a fund manager, sadly, just like everyone with a brokerage account calls themselves a trader :p). To get a good understanding of how sophisticated fund managers actually manage risk...

US vs Turkey (note left axis for Turkey inflation) This is not hyperinflation lol

The present value of a security equals the sum of all future cash flows, discounted by it's wacc. As the expectations of future cash flows rise (driven by increases in revenue, ebitda, or eps growth) the stock price will rise. Last Q results drove pretty large downward revisions to revenue...

I think his performance is suspect, yes, given the nature of these trading championships. I would love to see him establish an audited track record. I think he doesn't understand exactly the mechanism behind size. All active strategies have capacity constraints because active implies...

bet 10k on this? i'll live stream my brokerage statement to you.

Yes, I've said many times that the only useful information from a chart is momentum, but that you could get a better signal of momentum using an excel spreadsheet. E.g. if you base your decisions on a spreadsheet it'd be more in-line with your rules than your visual review. This is the basic...

It’s a combination of training and experience. I worked as a trader and PM for banks and hedge funds (8+ years in the industry, trading as a kid through school for 4 years, so approx 14-15 years of trading experience both retail and institutional). While at banks I went through their training...

Cool sounds like we are on the same page (at least in what we are discussing)! If you buy stock A because you perceive it as having momentum then your portfolio return = market_factor*weight + momentum_factor*weight + all_other*weight You can compare your portfolio with a benchmark to see if...

Lol you’re posting things from random websites used by retail traders. Why don’t you talk to real traders and fund managers across different strategies and then get back to me. A thesis is the rationale behind a trade, it doesn’t need to be some type of formal write up in the manner those sites...

Are you looking for a trailing stop?

that is an example of a top-down approach to making an investment idea, that has nothing to do with a thesis. a thesis can be as simple as: - am buying at 65 because i think i can sell at 67 due to rising volume as rising volume is correlated with higher prices it means tying your decision to...

Say your rule is you cut positions that are down 5%. You don't need look at a chart to calculate that...you can simply rebalance everyday (or every period, like 5 minutes, 4 weeks, whatever) to cut out positions that meet your rule (e.g. sell if stock 5-day pct return < 5%). I'm not suggesting...

That’s what I’m wondering too!