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Price and volume are are cointegrated. It means they generally move in the same direction. Price is more efficient around average volumes. There’s no lead-lag relationship. Big changes in volume typically are driven by new information about the stock, industry, or market.

It’s a leading indicator of PMI. One thing to note is that 6-mo outlook remained high, which suggests the miss was due to one-time factors (Omicron).

Use an option to make a bet when you think realized vol will be greater than implied vol.

ya and what's the risk premia someone trading hourly timeframes is capturing lol? What you are describing is not "scalping" it is betting on intra-day momentum or reversals.

Ok dude enough of the bullshit. I enjoy rigorous debate, but I am bored of "correlation, therefore causation" arguments. What you call "self-censorship" I call "thinking before speaking".

Ah the rise and fall of a grifter…

No. Real “scalping” nowadays is front running order flow, which is the domain of ull hft. “Swing trading” is mainly trading short term reversals on companies. Two very different skill sets.

Really good questions. I want to preface my response by saying that there’s no monopoly on truth and that I hope my answers reflect the humility of a student of the markets. To your questions now… Timing itself not “excess returns” of the benchmark. E.g. if you bought the dip then you’re still...

I might dabble in financials in about two weeks.

You'll want higher yielding, maturing, assets. Can you buy bonds directly? I'd look into leveraged loans (not funds!), high yield bonds (just under IG, and again not funds), and to a lesser degree alternative risk premia assets. For leveraged loans and bonds, tie the maturity to your liquidity...

how much fluctuates can you stomach over the next 12 months? 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%?

Don't enter a trade because of the "technicals". You can use the price action to see what's going on, but it's only interesting if the move is beyond the standard deviation. And even then, you may want to compare vs. peers. For example, if stock A's hourly standard deviation is 0.5% in price...

26) You claim to achieve ~60% win/loss ratio. What long-term win/loss ratio is considered excellent within equity HF industry? Depends on the strategy. I would consider my w/l as "competitive" in the strategy I run. Generally, the longer-time frame, the higher the w/l should be. HFTs have a win...

In the last tightening cycle, the Fed implied there was a lot of room to go higher with FFR at 2%+. That caused a recession in manufacturing (and a correction in most stocks ex-FANG).

I have a theory that Fed governors “create” volatility for fun. Clarida wakes up thinking “hmm market has been going up for some time…would be a shame if rate rhetorical shifted hawkish…”

Technically, the Fed could quickly tighten money which would lower demand. But that would also create a recession.

Not paper trading, but I’m constantly testing and refining my alpha signals. That’s somewhat close enough.

There is a liquidity risk premia so it is possible to make money through volume analytics, but Brooks’ has not made a dollar with his methods because he’s on the wrong track, so I would avoid his approach completely. Look up liquidity provisioning, small cap risk premia (and size factor), and...

That’s pretty good!

you are implying that hft’s are trading based on tick and I’m saying they do not… you’re welcome to show me a ppm of an hft that does though