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Market gyrations have been tough. I did not do much in the first 4-6 weeks, but picked up trading activity in May and June. NOTE: this is the total return of q2 which includes a global macro sleeve, which had an outsized impact on performance. Pure long-short spread was close to 0, mainly...

Trading is extremely hard. It does not get easier, though your process does improve over time.

Dunning-Kruger. Sorry mate.

Yes.

get a job on a trading floor.

Lol.

14day rsi more useful if you compare to std movr in valuation.

14day rsi is a weak signal of short term reversal, better signal is actually std of pct difference between a stock and its peer group, compared against newsflow of peers. Short term reversal factor is primarily driven by investor positioning and attention (lots of studies on this, I recommend...

Information on a chart that’s useful is: - price volatility - trend (past performance can be indicative of future performance a la momentum anomaly) - trading volumes (price and volume tends to be cointegrated) - option positioning (implied vol, OI, volumes at strike) - 14 day rsi is a proxy for...

what's the basis for your hypothesis? do you really have insight here or are you just guessing?

My criticism as someone who is deeply fundamental from an analytical process: - that website sucks! Where’s the quarterly data? And why is it standardized? I need to be able to make my own adjustments or follow the adjusted process a firm takes, not a pre-canned one from Refinitiv etc. - where’s...

it’s worth it if you know what you’re doing.

I think you answer the question here. If the account rose by 100 how can it be 2x (100% gain) of 200? 200 to 100 is always 50%. If you went the other way, started with -100 and moved to -200, now your loss has doubled — the change between the two can be described as “100%”. But whether you start...

If you’re struggling with basic maths I’m not sure how well your software will pan out. A loss of -200 to -100 means you reduced your loss by half, or 50%. Simple formula for % gain is New/Old-1. You never ever get 100%. You cannot say “I doubled my loss” or “my loss increased by double” or...

Maybe double check your sources before you try to trade off the data lol…

Why trade sofr futures? Like are you trying to collect term premia, basis trade, or are you looking to benefit from leverage?

I like what you're doing and trying to accomplish. What do you think of this study? fibonacci_trading.pdf (ust.hk)

You’re telling me that major investment banks or hft/quant funds are using fibs to set prices? Can you name the firm or fund lol?

Lol we agree on something!

Lol I’m not here to play a semantics game. Sell side is comp’ed for liquidity provisioning while buy side is for taking risk. Neither of those two approaches utilizes fibs. are there random $5m shops who call themselves a hedge fund and use technicals? Probably. But trading in the real world...