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You should read into market structure and how large investors trade. Generally, top of book liquidity is not great, which means investors trading in decent size need to be mindful of the Kyle limit and how their total order impacts price. Lots of public research on this & I work in the industry

No, I mean that just because volume is low doesn’t mean that a price won’t rally for days. If you make trading decisions off simple analysis, expect to get whiplashed.

Log chg of both. This a well known phenomenon and is widely documented in academic literature. However, general rules are not so great at timing. :-) Hence, technicals can be useful but not sufficient. If you see a stock rally without volume you should ask “what are the catalysts that would...

Technicals are price, volume, positioning, sentiment, etc., which are typically measured quantitatively or via a chart to assess momentum or mean reversion. I think that’s okay, and there’s some basis for that (momentum anomaly, cointegration between price and volume, the way large orders are...

They aren’t … I believe someone posted previously about the major conflicts of interest. How isn’t Mark worth at least $100MM or something in that order? Seriously.

He might’ve been good in the 90s, but seriously doubt he adds much if any value since mid2000s. Markets are very competitive and if you’re not “working out” by advancing your strategy, then you’ll be outcompeted. Also, markets are up sooo much since the 90s how can he not be a billionaire with...

Inflation data beat, so thesis is wrong.

Good stuff, thanks for the share. Side note: if you can’t figure out that the post linked back to Reddit I really worry about your pnl.

what's the basis for that view? Do you think inflation is driven by fed balance sheet and not supply/demand shocks?

Dunno how useful drawing trend lines are, but I would compare how far down HMI went down in other examples of Fed Funds reaching 4% or speedy hikes. Based on my analysis, HMI has a lot of room to go lower but should see the bottom around late nov - Dec.

Fiscal impulse is low given how tight the balance of power in congress is (and will be even more tight post-mid terms). While fiscal policy did spur inflation, that was its purpose. Did the gov give money to people not for them to spend it? What do you think the appetite for a new massive...

So you think in two years there’s high chance for headline cpi will be between 2-6%. Fed funds rate this year will go from zero to 4% by end of the year. Unless you think average gdp growth is 3%+ for the next few years, the Fed funds rate is restrictive at the 2.5%+ range (Fed funds > real gdp...

What are your odds of inflation being within these ranges in 2 years: 10%+ 6-9% 3-6% 2-3% 0-2% < 0%

Couple of things here: BS reduction isn't going to impact inflation much. QT won't occur until after the Fed drains most of the excess reserves (shaded area below). Should the Fed raise rates to where inflation was last month or where inflation will be? Monetary policy doesn't hit...

Another thing: jumbo rate hikes are old news. The Fed wants to get to 375-400bps by end of the year. It's currently at 250. So that's another 125-150bp of tightening over 3 FOMC meetings. It can do that via 75+50+25, 50+50+50, 100+50, etc., etc. What matters is what rate they are trying to get to.

Some additional notes: Goods disinflation Hiring plans are slowing: 2year breakevens are pricing inflation below 2.2%: Home prices are selling below list price: CTAs are super short:

Summary Long-duration assets will likely outperform through end of the year as near-term inflation data supports a Fed terminal rate of ~4% by the Dec meeting Positioning data suggests rapid price moves higher though without sustained increases in volume a tactical approach is best (rallies...

but did you make any money?

Dealers, hedgers, other types of investors, and open interest.

Can see positioning. If everyone is short or long, and there’s a risk catalyst coming up, you can identify where a potential move might come from.