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Well, overconfidence is not necessarily overcompensation of something else, rather just an error in evaluation of reality, which as I wrote in my recent rant is often the case when we deal with unknown/uncertain matters. Like immune system, our mental/emotional abilities usually work fine...

Say ATR is 100 ticks, you had a signal and entered long 50 ticks from the bottom of day's range. If price goes ITM by 50 ticks you exit, cause ATR is reached (assuming "A" in the acronym means "average" :) ).

If you believe in ATR, why not simply exit part or whole position, when ATR boundary is reached?

Will try to explain: if you want to exit your trades based on ATR it probably makes sense to combine optimal statistical MFE (maximum favorable excursion) of your trades with ATR values to get sort of formula for exit prices, like if price reaches point of either MFE, part of ATR or whole ATR...

MFE used as sort of "leg of ATR in one direction".

I think RN is correct in a sense that being a prey of overconfidence means lack of self-control skill (staying in realistic and objective boundaries of perception). If he meant that, I fully agree.

Here's the rant I wrote last week being inspired by this thread, thanks OP. :)

Question is: greed or survival?

I don't think overconfidence is good in any area of life. Confidence, yes, but not overconfidence.

Develop logical rules for exiting for a profit based on market analysis or statistics (MFE). Follow them. Much easier to follow rules than guess which is the ideal point to exit every time.

Here's the little and research I performed on bitcoin being queried in search engines correlation to it's price... http://www.cornixtrading.com/2013/11/bitcoin-as-a-beautiful-sample-of-public-interestprice-correlation/ This market looks like an ideal "lab rat" of classic market behavior...

TA is derivative of behavioral finance IMO. Meaning correctly understood TA of course (different from belief in magic patterns/numbers).

I came to trading cause I was looking for scalability of doing something while not being tied to any particular geographical point. Had successful business which was not tied to any location either, but it wasn't as scalable as I wanted.

Self-fulfilling prophecy. It's good that such a thread appeared in "psychology" area, cause technical levels are actually psychological in my view.

Check with CME for futures opening prices. Yes they have opening, but it's not the same as RTH opening (which was the "official" opening before futures started to trade overnight).

Yep. Everyone uses a stop (point where it's time to say a losing trade goodbye). Smarter traders can see when trade goes wrong earlier, dumb money later. Sometimes as late as margin call.

Right. If one is paranoid about having outright order in the market, using synthetic order can be a way to go.

Exactly! For someone, very confident (oh well, too confident) in their signal it may be a margin call. For others point of where it's time to accept a loss is much closer. Doesn't matter. Still a stop. Difference is realistic or unrealistic expectations about your system. :D

For any trade there's a point where you admit a loss. Doesn't matter in the actual form of stop-loss orders or not, everyone uses stop-losses. Everyone. Even in case of "stop-loss" being zero value of stock or a margin call.

Fat lady didn't sing yet (just back from the opera :D ). I do continue, just not as active on ET as I used to be. :)