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Why is it the nino trade? I tried to go long the front spread on soyoil to balance the seasonal bear spreads I had further down the curve. I only got 1 lot...LOL

I didn't mention a soybeans/ soyoil spread on the thread? I can't find it...I just got out of it @-6715:(

FCX, Have you seen our soymeal front spread? Strikes in Argentina about to get resolved? Poultry feed demand lower because of Avian Influenza? Yes, Yes...LOL...I wonder if this thing trades on CBOT or Cap Canaveral...

This week end I will review all the short soyoil spreads I have on...No need to lose more...

Scratched it as outrights broke previous lows.

Missouri and Ohio for soft winter too...

Yep I meant Georgia when I said Virginia...My bad... I also forgot North Dakota for spring wheat, not Wisconsin.

Hello, I was checking the crop progress report for different grains and oilseeds and I realized I wasn't really aware of the main production states for each commodity. Can you please help complete/correct my list : Corn : Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio ? Soft Winter Wheat : Illinois, Indiana...

Out half of it @ 5. The rest soon in stratosphere hopefully.

H2O, I saw your response just before going into the long weekend and I was seriously feeling stupid until I checked some graphs and realized Tom's hedge was working prefectly... But it was just that I hadn't been precise enough. In this example I am trying to trade KW Vs EBM * EURSUD not KW Vs...

Capiche...

Thanks. It's a good way to think about it, neutralizing the foreign denominated asset...And it makes sense to only hedge the milling wheat part if my account is in USD... There is just something arbitrary to me in the values of contracts but I can't put a name on it...Sometimes some positions...

Out @ -0.325 before the long WE.:)

Yes but here October is kind of intercrop , just like Sep on Corn. Sometimes it is lower than December and represent the new supply but sometimes not. Here we have Oct/Dec in carry as if oct was new crop but surprise the next two months are backwards??? Long Oct/Short Dec was my initial...

A new question on this subject. Let's say if the 2 assets "cointegrate"( I don't know if it is the right word ) perfectly with a number of contracts representing different amounts of capital invested. For example here let's say Milling wheat is more volatile per dollar invested so it is better...

Seriously check the soymeal curve right now...If it is not a buying opportunity on Oct-2Dec+Jan Fly, I don't know what is. It is really odd, Oct/Dec is moving 2 ticks per day while Dec/Jan is moving 7.

Oh yeah...I look stupid now ...LOL...

Short Dec / Long Jan Soymeal @ 0.3.

Out @ 30. :). The crop condition improvement and this big engulfing candlestick made me change my mind. I initially wanted to ride it much further...

I am in front of a dilemma. There is a long Oct/ Short Dec Hogs seasonal trade which can be taken around now until October. It's reliable in terms of historical results but this spread is already quite rich, almost at historical levels except for last year which was a complete outlier in terms...