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  1. O

    The hacienda hedge

    According to the above chart, a long period of raising trendy price after the economic crash of 2008 period could graphically indicate a fairly serious problem Mexico had. How could a country raise oil price during weak economic time? Unreasonable!
  2. O

    The hacienda hedge

    The article's analysis seems incomplete. Here are 4 scenarios: A1. Dropping from (sold futures at) $128 to $55. Buying calls. The $24B has to first deduct the $2.4B, that means $21.6B as incremental benefit, not $24B. Then a further cost of about (say) $13.6B for buying calls as long hedge...
  3. O

    Islam doesn't belong in a civilized country

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red-Letter_Christian
  4. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Price should be logically dropping during year 2008, as in the US and OZ. Almost for the whole world. But Mexico price was going up 2007-2010!?
  5. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Here is a good analysis:
  6. O

    The hacienda hedge

    It seems to me that possibly the article's figures for hedge gains would be trying to promote the hedging consultancy company, more than the outcome of actual performance. Just my 6th sense feeling! LOL http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gasoline-prices
  7. O

    Jokes 2

    https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/jokes-2.93321/page-1373 LOL
  8. O

    Gaussian correlation inequality and predication of stock price flunctation

    Probably useful. https://www.quantamagazine.org/20170328-statistician-proves-gaussian-correlation-inequality/
  9. O

    [Amazing] Cave paintings: Up to 40,000 years Old

    Did they use/invent ladders? That could be high tech in order to build stable ladders for the paintings during the era!
  10. O

    The hacienda hedge

    My view is the article cannot cover all actual operational and financial figures, as usual. Simply due to commercial confidential data. Most likely there should be an expensive cost for buying swaps during upward price trend.? Just my guess. Awaiting comments from commercial professionals.
  11. O

    The hacienda hedge

    1. Why only do hedging for (the next) 100 days production, when they can see the next year's trend is upwards which is evaluated fundamentally sound? That means the future prices will be higher on the 120th-day, further higher on 240th-day, and finally the highest on the 360th day. Buying every...
  12. O

    L.A. Times editorial eviscerates Trump

    Once again, just another Mayflower Scandal coming! LOL
  13. O

    Denmark Was Like Greece, Now It’s Really Happy

    Good policy? I don't think so! In Australia, having various incentives of different kind for new birth babies locally, we still want more migrants (skilled & others).
  14. O

    The hacienda hedge

    It's very unclear. Was it actually buying $11.7B puts, returning (14.1+11.7)B for a gain of 14.1B?
  15. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Perhaps buying the ~1B puts yearly can be a good hedge. But they still need to buy the puts at the right timing. Isn't it? I don't know.
  16. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Good points. As mentioned another post, very complex supply chain in trading crude oil. Some hedges lost money, while at the same period some gained. Hedging involves not only timing and directional bets, but also hedge size/ratio. Just 10 cents.
  17. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Probably not. Depends, imo. Very very complex. Google some good scholarly papers/theses.
  18. O

    The hacienda hedge

    Good return, very good return indeed!
  19. O

    [Amazing] Cave paintings: Up to 40,000 years Old

    A babirusa or ‘deer-pig’ and a hand stencil. Hunter-gatherers preyed on the strange and unique land mammals that evolved in isolation on Sulawesi. Photograph: Kinez Riza
  20. O

    Islam doesn't belong in a civilized country

    Jesus was considered barbaric, when the norm/law of his era is not to work on Sundays, but he cured a sick person on Sunday. Jesus was considered barbaric, when the norm/law of his era is to keep distance from sinners, but he walked and ate with them. Jesus was considered to be barbaric...
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