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I meant "predict", not "predicate". I wish there wasn't a 30 minute limit on fixing brain farts.

Well, some small players are rational but the guys who manage multi-billion dollar pensions and the like *have* to be rational. They have the resources to thoroughly investigate any business they invest in, including private meetings with the management and extensive studies of the market. So...

You are the one lacking in comprehension. Of course if a company makes $1,000,000 over estimate its price will spike up. But who predicted that result? The company could have made $1,000,000 less than the estimate (with about the same probability) and then the price would have spiked down...

Well, to try to answer the OP's question -- where's the gold ending up? The major retail buyers are in India and China. In India gold jewelry has long been a major part of a woman's dowry. Chinese retail demand has been growing and is now about twice the retail demand in the United States...

The sentence quoted was: "To the contrary, the random walk theory assumes that market participants act rationally, have good information, and that that information is quickly incorporated into prices." Now, perhaps I should have been explicit and said "most market participants", but I...

Actually, the Efficient Market Hypothesis has everything to do with the Random Walk hypothesis. In an efficient market the only things that drive price change are unforeseeable, and thus practically random, events. (This does not mean that the random walk has to be a simple constant volatility...

You inserted "all" in my statement and that changes the meaning completely. It is not necessary for all market participants to act rationally for the efficient market hypothesis to be true. Quote me correctly next time if you don't want to be called a liar.

Since the early 1970s we have the following changes in markets: 1. Nearly everything is now traded on electronic exchanges. Prices are available to everyone in real time. 2. The world wide web makes it easy for information to be exchanged globally nearly instantly. 3. Computers are...

No, the random walk theory does not presuppose that all market participants act randomly. To the contrary, the random walk theory assumes that market participants act rationally, have good information, and that that information is quickly incorporated into prices. As a result, the only reason...

I'm not convinced that the VIX has much use as an indicator. It always goes up *after* the market crashes, not before.

Why? What's impractical about buying a put?

The Republican Party has been taken over by nasty, war mongering neocons. Plenty of good paleoconservatives are against our policy of world policing and endless war. I am not a Democrat because they are pro-illegal immigration, favor discrimination against whites, and like high taxes and big...

Bachmann is the fake Constitutionalist. The real Constitutionalist (Ron Paul) came in second, only 1% behind Bachmann. So there is hope.

I have disagreements with Ron Paul, but on foreign policy Paul is perfect.

I haven't traded options on TD Ameritrade in years. Are their option commissions still ludicrous?

Of course I'm paranoid. The super villains who aren't paranoid are dead.

I wouldn't be able to fund my high tech underground hideout, orbiting mind control lasers, team of henchmen, personal army, and attack submarine with a mere $200 million. There's a certain minimum requirement for being a super villain, you know.

The difference is $300 million. Glad I could help.

Will this tax apply to option market makers who must buy and sell huge blocks of shares every day to hedge their option book? If, so, watch those bid/ask prices on options widen to breath taking levels. If not, then we have a tax that only affects the little guys, not the big players...

I realize that that position shouldn't have required any margin at all, but still if you'd had a modest amount of cash in your account after buying the vertical spread there should have been enough money to cover the anomalous pricing and there wouldn't have been a margin call.