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Exactly. Now consider your proposition that market movement is random in light of the fact that, after a certain point, virtually none of the positions held by LTCM would "revert to mean" until they were bailed out.

And how can you tell when that pattern you trade ceases to be significant and becomes no better than "random"? How can you tell that a period of drawdown in only a temporary setback, or a sign that your signal has truly lost predictive significance? How many times does it need to fail before...

What is the difference between "wishful thinking" pattern/trend following and projecting statistically "significant" numbers analysis from the past into the future? Both are just predictions that what has happened will continue to happen. But anything that appears to "work" reliably in the...

First ever trades were to buy 200 shares of IPG, 200 AEN, and 500 WTEC in the summer of 93. I remember using Waterhouse's online all-text trading "platform" to enter the orders. The IPG and AEN were duds, but I think Warrantech went up about 50 cents over a few months time.

My response would be the error of projecting one's failed attempt to time intraday or short term price movement of a broad stock index to conclude that all price action is random. An index of 500 companies whose daily volume is made up in large part to hedgers and options games would just as...

There are enough trading opportunities in all markets for both kinds of traders. Some prefer to wait and only deal with the same setups repeatedly, filtering out the rest; others do not mind perceiving trading as a series of unique events/opportunities to be dealt with individually. Most...

For certain methods this is a must. But honestly, as good as the idea sounds, I could never think of the market in probabilities like in poker or blackjack in the way I trade -- either I am flat out right or wrong, like fitting together the pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. Fortunately, if I've...

With the assumption that people trade ultimately out of greed and fear, there is no reason to even begin with the notion that the markets are random. Randomness is an illusion working on 2 separate levels: ignorance and obfuscation. Imagine 2 birds chirping at each other. The noises they...

Crazy day for trading loonie.

I just went there for milk and came home with $40 worth of stinky cheese, organic nachos and not-so-sweet sparkling beverages. This place is a disposable income-sucking machine.

The thing about Whole Foods is, once you start going there you can't stop. Should have bot the stock a few years back when I realized I was gradually doing all my grocery shopping there. edit: the most recently opened branch in NYC is always a madhouse, another is slated to open soon -- I...

Loonie might go higher just on dollar weakness more than its own strength, perhaps eur/cad or cad/jpy (short) would be somewhat safer bet atm, jmo.

My thoughts exactly. So when's your next film coming out? :)

Stop it nik before he starts to cry :(

Again, trying to connect the two doesn't make much sense. Someone who is completely aware of his reasoning for placing a trade along the lines of what you cited earlier (psychological, geopolitical, environmental etc) will not care much for the statistical history of that particular trade...

Yeah, I'd consider someone making 50 SP pts/week per contract killing it too, lol.

Either you assume it's total pips earned regardless of size, which makes it kinda pointless given how deep the market is, or it's pips per contract/unit per week, which makes the question equally, well, silly :)

I wouldn't say that it comes down to some sliding inverse scale. One trader will say trade X has never worked before, hence it will not work in the future. Another trader will say trade X has never worked before, and hence on this occasion trade X will have even greater profit potential.

I can't imagine how anyone puts up with a market quoted through a middleman that is always actively on the other side of your trades. Remind me again why you guys don't just trade globex?

While we're at it, a big shout out to the fund whose 9-figure stop-limit order marked the recent low in the euro. :)