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In certain markets, it's exactly the opposite.

Quite simply, holy grail = information, in every sense of the word.

Sell it?

why?

Markets are discounting mechanisms; even if you were successful in your "quantifications", correct diagnoses do not necessarily yield profits.

If the exit strategy is independent of entry, I don't see how this can be true. But I take it that "good exit strategy" implies that the exits vary with the entry; if that's the case, you'd still have certain liquidity and volatility requirements to allow those "skilled enough" to maintain...

Just curious why those of you who are profitable in fx haven't moved on to globex futures? I understand the "ain't broke, don't fix it" attitude, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to stay with retail fx except the ability to trade small lots.

Sounds reasonable to me. Muddy tends to be more profitable than clear in any case. :)

How/when will you know you are wrong, as opposed to getting a great entry point to exploit your predictions?

Always keep bets small; always trade the same size consistently, move up slow and steady. There will be a time when you will know when to break these rules in your favor; your experience friday should clue you in on when those occasions arise.

That's just insane. A round trip on a pound future will cost you 1 tick in commission, with a 1-2 tick spread.

Where did you read that? Compared to the 2-3 pip "built in" spread on fx cash, futures slippage is minimal. You will almost always have 1 tick spread on euro and jpy, unless you are swinging 50 contracts at a clip.

Seems like someone needs to get stopped out here before we can turn.

Very nice catch! :)

I'm short but have no opinion :)

Ok fine, minus-sum and putting food on our brokers' tables -- let us dream a while, will ya? :)

Until now, this was pretty much my attitude about things here. However, having recently gone completely discretionary with respect to my trading, I've now grown a feeling that a) the scope of what falls under the (relatively) "ineffectual" is much wider than I previously thought; b) I could...

There's barely anyone on this forum that trades off just daily charts (I've asked before), much less weekly/monthly.

TA is basically what most of us resort to because on the surface we have no other choice -- analagous to fantasy football league vs the actual NFL game. We make up conditions and indicators to somehow divine what the actual buyers and sellers that move the market trade off of. Imagine if we...

You don't want to get rid of every anxious feeling during the trading day, the last thing you want to do is sit back serenely while the market blows through your stop-limit order and leaves it hanging. When it comes to personal emotional peaks and valleys, the key is not in fighting the...