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A 30-50% a year? I wonder why everyone doesn't put this trade on, especially with cash fx markets being far deeper than the grain pits. You really shouldn't be telling people about this, once those big institutions figure this stuff out they might start cutting into your returns . . .

Why can't companies just purchase foward contracts on the yuan to hedge out the rising costs?

I know underneath it's all a semantics game, but I wasn't referring to ethics or morality at all -- I'm comparing the market maker or specialist who is just managing merchandise and not really making any judgement on the market whatsoever, versus someone who's not required to take the risk at...

Just trying to take an alternate view on things -- as in, real trading must embrace that element of gambling or chance taking, otherwise it's not trading. The specialist who knows where everyone's bidding and the location of all the stops -- is he actually trading, or just moving merchandise...

What about the attitude that trading necessarily entails taking risks -- otherwise, it's not considered trading? One of the market wizard interviews, I think it was Bill Lipshutz (sp?), held a kind of suspicious view of even what the FX market makers at big banks would do, making their money on...

Dunno, but I have a feeling it may not be the best situation to begin one's first attempt at "trading around" such a position. We're seeing movement in certain markets we haven't seen in a long time, maybe just cut and run and lick your wounds this time around and save the trading around lesson...

I'd say the best case for your position would be a gap up and eventual selloff into the close, just depends on what your pain threshhold is. If the stock market opens way down, this will probably be the case.

You'll get your first clues when bund opens sunday night, see how it reacts at highs of the year -- ECBOT opens like sunday 7pm CST i think, good luck!

Or how bout DNA 2 months in a row?!?

What is worst for you, 112?? :) I think you just got caught in a bit of a squeeze from those who sold/shorted after mich sentiment taking their lumps -- I bet they thought they were being real clever :D But imo you'll likely get a chance to scratch out monday morning so long as the entire...

I've recently posted a few blurbs on this topic from my own experience, it's my opinion that one should start with working on his method and making sure there is an edge to begin with before one starts looking for a shrink. I spent years trying to resolve the same problems flash seems to be...

Agreed, there would be no reason for him to have faith in anything handed to him without having done the research himself. It's not just about whether the edge is valid or not, but also whether he understands how it works. The same goes for any trading "rules" that are in all the books on...

The simple answer is that he doesn't trust his own rules -- if they provided such an edge that he was convinced over the long run that he would be profitable just by sticking with them, there'd be no reason for him to take chances or try anything else. Take a second look at your rules, at...

If you can know what the market participants will do before they even know, is it still gambling? :D

It was just an example in response to your post about randomness vs rigged -- for those on the outside, markets will appear random; for those on the inside -- aka, with priveleged information or comprehension, whether from position, experience or otherwise -- they may not be rigged per se, but...

Of course the capital markets are rigged :) One element which is obvious is that information is imperfectly spread throughout the participants. Think of the basic purpose of an IPO: is it not an attempt by a (virtually) perfectly informed entity -- aka the CEO/founding partners -- to sell...

That drop from 230 to around 160 yen was pretty much a straight line down, during which I'm sure there were a few giant gaps along the way (post-Plaza Accord). Scary stuff for that kind of trading! Isn't selling straddles a comparable risk/reward profile?

I just meant what would happen to the short side of the account? How do you get out of the losing end of the trade, after incrementally adding size as the position goes against you? We haven't seen 200 yen to the dollar since 1985; would you be counting on greater profits on the long side to...

Electric, what would have happened to a trader who implemented that strategy with say JPY 20 + years ago when yen was trading around 220 to the dollar? <gulp>

:confused:!?!? You been drinking from the same bowl as Coinz? :D j/k