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If you can't tell what's going on, the market = random to you = no profit available. But does that mean the market is efficient? From a different angle, why would anyone place any trade at all, if they did not think they could profit/avoid loss by that action? By definition, opening a...

Thanks for the link! So if I'm using this right, you're getting a little over 3 pips a week in holding AUD/USD? Be careful if CRB starts going down the toilet.

What's the number of pips equivalent for the yield gained by holding AUD or GBP vs dollar, say over a week's time? What's the shorthand way of eyeballing that?

IB has electronic crude mini futures (QM), 1/2 size of CL, no grains as of yet (but I think quotes are available).

If you want to get your feet wet in futures, why not start with currencies since you already trade fx, the mechanics are pretty much variations on the same across all markets.

This I think is the crux of the whole matter (and I think it extends to all time frames) -- are the terms "random" and "having an edge" a readily definable polarity in the market, or does the concept just fall into the eyes of the beholder? The convention seems to be that movement one does not...

The pitfall is calling something "random" just because we don't or cannot possibly understand or comprehend something in it's entirety. A person unfamiliar with art history will look at a Pollack painting and call it "random" splashes of paint; someone listening to atonal impressionist music...

I wonder what the odds are we touch that level again by today's close.

Not too familiar with the gold ETF -- is the GLD sale based on something like lower "open interest" on the shares?

Yes that has always been checked.

8 times out of ten you will make a few ticks doing that; the 2 times the train keeps going because of some unforseen event can easily wipe out the gains and more. If you're comfortable with the profile of frequent small gains and occasional outsized losses, go for it.

A few days ago, I had a GTC stop-limit order on ZN which should have been triggered but did not; the tape showed we traded through my trigger price for several minutes but my order remained open the next morning. I have my stop trigger settings set to active for after hours sessions. I...

Didn't we just run up almost $30 the past few weeks? Or you trading in Australia? :)

"Demons" only exist when you're unsure of yourself or your plan, which is what I'm going through at the moment. I may end up doing exactly the same as what I'm doing now, but it's only after coming to an understanding (asking questions, compiling statistics, exploring alternatives etc) that I...

I think you misunderstood, or I may have been unclear; noise will almost always stop me out of my entries, that is something I fully accept and take into account when deciding upon an entry. If it gets noisy after I enter, I am plain wrong -- it's not the losing trades I'm having trouble with :).

I think that's basically what it boils down to, on the exits I really can't expect to have the same convergence of indications for when to get out in contrast to entry, so I'm reduced to what I consider inferior or less consistent means of determining that point. I think I can contradict that...

That is what I'm looking to eliminate when I enter a trade, the element of "noise" or randomness once the position is taken. I'm not always looking to get the best entry price-wise or catching the low or high, but when I enter I expect a relatively immediate move in my direction, and there are...

"Managing" is definitely my weak point when it comes to my discretionary positions, to the point where I'm starting to want to fade my own instincts when it comes to deciding when and where to lock in. There's a definite hindrance in reaction time for me when having a committment to a position...

I think the same thing can be said for the currency and bond markets, alot of confusing cross-currents and whipsaw moves. As per this thread, by the time I decide to reign in my targets and just try for base hits is most likely when the bigger trend re-asserts itself again, which makes sense. :)

This makes sense, the hard part is what to do when exit signs don't all line up (the vast majority of the time) in the same way as my entries. On my entries I can afford to wait for near-perfection, but I can't expect the exits to be as clear cut in both analysis and perception -- I wasn't very...