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Yes, it's mostly a matter of timing, among other things. I'm not reading too many articles or posts on the coming demise of sterling, however, so I'm not buying the herd mentality argument in this case. If you're looking for a dollar retracement, maybe euro could be better bet? jmo.

I was just referring to the steady (but fast) pace of the fall, with not much retracement at all -- smells like long liquidation rather than shorts pushing. The euro on the other hand managed to retrace every drop attempt this week, staying relatively close to the prior breakdown level (1.20).

That's funny, I was just about to say that it seems like the herd mentality is trying to pick a bottom in gbp, which is why it seems to be falling so steadily. I think the hugely negative sentiment on the euro last month drove alot of players into shorting eur and going long sterling, and this...

I am guessing that most traders on this forum are short-term oriented/no overnight positions (esp in futures); by the time the reality of the situation hit the markets, prices were pushed so far that traders would probably be more comfortable in fading the move rather than chasing. As most...

I've always subscribed to the idea of perception = reality in the markets; even if what is expected does not come to pass, markets do move on expectations as you mention above, and profits/losses from those moves are real enough. In any case, by the time expectation and reality do converge, the...

Electric, I think it may come down to the same issue marketsurfer brought up about trend following and whether or not it was the actual "edge" vs what profitable traders believed -- in the end, a moot point. In any case, I made the first post because of similar "selling points" I've...

I am not saying ES's system has no value, just that there is no edge to be gained in always going long/short certain pairs for the interest differential. It's similar to holding on long and/or continuously averaging down on a stock just for the dividend; if you're timing is exceptional and you...

And if you are profitable, it's for reasons not listed above, e.g., you are an excellent market timer. :)

FX seems to specifically seek out the novice trader, offering "zero commissions" and tiny trading lots; they really assume you've never traded before (and perhaps for good reason). At the office I visited, the manager tried to show me a "trick" that he uses for rangebound currencies: go...

Here are a few pre-emptive hints off the top of my head: A) Buying a currency with higher rates while shorting a currency with lower rates is not an edge. B) Leverage is not an edge. C) A + B certainly do not make an edge. D) On martingale systems: markets can and will remain...

Position size relative to account should be consistent, so the proportional r/r is the same; the 5% target should be ignored, each trade's potential will differ from others. But in most cases you must be able to let a profitable trade run further if it wants to.

Spot fx has some secret guaranteed return system unavailable or heretofore undiscovered by those trading futures. The only catch is that it apparently doesn't seem to work with one's own capital.

Charts and analysis will always "create" order (aka comprehension) but in retrospect; always better to comprehend before price moves :)

I think this perspective is completely wrong. The question is how much of an "edge" does taking advantage of interest rate differentials inherently have? On the surface it's not much better than just buying a 10-yr note and holding for the 4% or so -- in fact it's much worse, given the...

Ironic many fx traders hold trades for yield differential, when changing yield expectation is main the reason why they are losing money on these trades atm.

Looks like on that crude chart, you could have said the same thing in reverse on Jun 29 for a buy signal.

Along the same lines, why should yen go higher if yuan is revalued . . .

Can you clarify what "6% exposed to margin" means? Are you saying that out of 100k, 6k is fully leveraged at 50:1 so that you have 300k in positions? Then it's simpler to say you have been using 3:1 leverage. You'd need to factor in other numbers to be able to say whether a drawdown is...

Those numbers don't mean sh*t, beyond the fact that you are losing money. I'm sure this isn't the case, but what if the reason you are losing money is the fact that your stops are way too tight, and the only reason you make money on profitable days is that you allowed yourself a wider stop...

Ebenson, what's with the hostility? mtzianos asked why is it nations like japan don't liquidate their treasury holdings to ease inflation on their citizens, I just gave him one explanation that seems to fit in with "standard" rhetoric -- who knows if it's true? And no, pumping liquidity...