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Note once again, that the while the distribution of this chart in a histogram display would mimic a gaussian curve (as maestro showed), the only difference separating such a curve from real markets, would be the spurious fat tails or gaps. You could extend this to bar or candlestick type...

Maestro, I do like your thinking style. Any good chart reader can determine that there is a beautiful young lady in the picture. If they can't, then they just don't "have the gift." --------------------------------------------------------------------- "Patterns are the fool's gold...

To be honest, I haven't backtested it, but I've heard different arguments on it's veracity. Several authors have tested and claimed it worked under the prevailing betting conditions at the time. "The great Albert Einstein was quoted as saying, "The only way to beat Roulette is to steal the...

Thank you maestro, although I haven't read much of your work (since I joined), I look forward to seeing more.

[/b] Thanks for you comments thunderdog, as I find you one of the few posters I have come to respect on the boards. I should be more specific. When I refer to random, I am implicitly referring to random in the gaussian sense. Markets are very close to gaussian random and can be modeled as...

http://wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=3&threadid=58450 For those interested in some quant views on randomness, I thought this thread was quite good. While the main thread is dedicated to debating on Taleb's views, if you sift through all the pedantic pontificating, you will find some well...

Thank you for posting this. One more of my mythical heroes deconstructed. Your thread you referenced reminded me of a recent book on gambling scams, whereby they stated that the majority of poker tournaments always seem to have the same group of winners (who are coincidentally part of the...

The biggest problem in the leap, is trying to understand the difference between predicting systems based on rational logic (i.e. when designing circuits, inc. analog, things make rational sense), to irrational logic. The market (or house if you will) is designed to fool the masses who...

Only about 8%/year difference according to this site. Now if only my health insurance would rise 2-4% annually. I guess they forgot to check the stats, as the skys the limit on their compounding fee hikes. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Ask if they find short term (HF) trading systems more reliable/profitable than trending (i.e. turtle type), and if so, what kind of daily short term gains do they shoot for. also, how do they scale their bets (fixed, fractional, kelly, etc.) as a function of a given amount of capital. thanks.

1) To give you an idea of what it looks like over the long term. I compounded s&P500 since 2000 at both rates for 2000-present. You can get an idea of how they move over the long run by looking at this. It is not exact since I didn't include gaps, but their relative performance is correct...

For one, the ultra ETFs do not correlate very well to their underlying index over the long run. Plenty of empical data shows that ultra ETFs barely exceed the underlying over long periods. They are good for short term extremes, and do exactly as they advertise: track double the one day...

Hi Don, Fighting the tide here is getting difficult. Sentiment followers are getting smacked down left and right. It seems that the more systems and theories get disseminated to the masses, the more they start to fail. Good position at the moment: market neutral.

.3 and .4, short away.

Huge gap.

I heard tulips were pretty popular just before he was born. I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Isaac Newton The specialists only gave out level 1 back then, and for some reason, in all his genius, he just couldn't figure out why he always...

Here's a koch fractal generator for anyone that may ever want one. http://www.arcytech.org/java/fractals/koch.shtml Good to see the elite have been proliferating here, while I've branched out.

hehe, it's funny that you didn't even understand T's response, yet try to throw out a snide response -- a 3 leg fractal generator is about as simple as it gets. Even funnier that you name yourself mandelbrot, but do not even understand what a fractal is. And who said I wanted it to analyze...

I see not many here understand fractals, eh?