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considering that it's in the top 6 weight contributors to the nasdaq 100, I would think that would have some impact (regardless of whether they are hot or not).

They could've hired arthur anderson. Oops. I see they're busy auditing enron.

Sounds like a well researched hypothesis. Looks like you did a lot of homework here and have an equivalent amount of experience as to how markets work. Thanks, I'm shorting the bank now.:D (Think I'm finally starting to understand how makloda feels).

The quintessential example of money management necessity (outside of maybe niederhoffer). Long Term Capital Management was the pinnacle of quant hedge funds. Boasting noble laureates and a brilliant team of quantitative analysts on their roster, they would make highly leveraged and speculative...

sometimes I wonder if he intentionally fades his commentary, or comments opposite to what his sources tell him. After reading "trading with the enemy," I wouldn't consider it inconceivable.

Excellent commentary. Although I would add that the greater your edge (hence trading skills) the faster you get to the target. Compounding with outstanding money mgmt skills and a .0001% edge (assuming your initial capital is small, you'd likely die 1st), can take quite a long time to reach...

Not sure I buy that argument. As history shows something quite different. Utilities rose long before the upturn in the fed rates after the 02-03 bottom. Opposite to the relationship you are implying. If anything, I would simply say that they are expressing uncertainty. One could argue...

unless of course you are the broker, holding a net out to capture guaranteed commission for every bet; win or lose. Or the government holding out another net for the taxes if you win. Other than that...:D

The instrument goes up and down, while being weighted by a practically infinite range of magnitudes each iteration. Makes it a tad bit more complex than you are stating.

no.

You just hit on one of the major issues I've mentioned before about many author's interpretations of kelly (and any type of optimal) bet sizing. If you base the optimal fraction on a finite historical worst case loss, and the future negative returns/stops never exceed that, you are ok...

The moral of the story is that the elephant police only notice the 800-lb elephant in the room if it happens to drop a turd in their comfy little gold lined alcove. You're preaching to the choir, flytiger. Once the elephant learns not to enter said cherished ground, the EP go back to smoking...

correct, the currents add up. The voltages remain the same in parallel. Like running batteries in parallel. You increase the overall current sourcing capability of the original single batteries, but retain the same voltage. Power sourcing increases likewise. Pt = vt*(i1 + i2 + i3 + ...)...

"Over the years, stock analysts have suggested that the market prefers Republicans in the White House. This apparently arises from the view that Republican administrations are more favorable toward business than Democratic administrations. Most studies attempting to document this have focused on...

Don, I've posted a reference to an SEC document a while back that asserted something to the fact that trades can get reported and settled after hours on overseas exchanges. Not that it specifically refers to dark pools, but nor does it exclude them (from my understanding). Do you agree...

Funny you should say that, since you didn't have a clue as to what VWAP/SD was, despite the proliferation of sites describing them. 20+ posts of help, a solution to your conundrum, and not one word of thanks. Have Sierra charts send me a consulting fee.:D Cheers.

Quite true. And hence the quote from Wittgenstein. Notice the emphasis on limited, which limits the objectivity of any human reply to said formulated question. As for IAM, the question was posed from a critical thinking view point, not an opinionated view point. You should take a course in...

A professor of critical thinking once posed a question to the effect of -- if God is omnipotent, could he create a boulder so heavy that he himself could not even move it? Don't be so quick to formalize the big mysteries in terms of simple logic. Even logic has limitations (Read some B...

"While writing I also realized it would have been more complete to explain how the hidden layers [advisors] are necessary to give it non-linear prediction ability" hmm... I would argue that one simple advisor ( a differential comparator with the error used to control feedback weight) would...

My .02 cents. I like your writing style and the metaphorical analogies you made. However, I think it would be extremely difficult for someone (who hasn't built a NN previously) to translate the narrative into a quantitative running model of a NN. Reminds me a bit of the journals from...