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I don't know about you, but anytime "THEY" are feeling benevolent enough to leak something to the masses, I start to think fade. Remember when "THEY" were buying enormous puts on major indices on some bin laden rumor about a year or so ago, because some big disaster was about to happen. I...

So just out of curiosity, what is your estimate for the max drawdown from S&P500 pk, when the damage is fully done. It's already some ... what -40%+ from it's peak. You think both dow and s&P will hit -90% this time? I don't think it's impossible that "this time" will be the one, but...

The original assumptions are incorrect to begin with. If oil goes to 50, ultrashort goes to 100 ie.. %change in ultrashort is -2*%change in oil. here the change is -50% oil and corresponding change in ultrashort = 100% or -2*-50% Ok, I buy that. However, if oil goes to 200, that...

From a statistical POV, you don't want to be looking at averages that way. Think about it this way; suppose you had 99 -1% trades and one 500% trade. What is your confidence that the average of that run (~4%/trade) would reflect your next 2000 trades? Hopefully, not very much. Start to...

Comparison looks accurate to me according to your lists. But, what's the relevance, it is a cherry picked comparison. You could make a similar comparison for European Union. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/GDP_nominal_per_capita_world_map_IMF_2007.PNG It is well...

what I find more ironic is that no one seems to remember nor recognize the names of the esteemed keating 5, as they tend to resurface from time to time.:D S&L debacle then, Subrpime debacle now. Nothing new under the sun, and contrary to popular opinion, the players don't always change.

Good answers. I certainly would like to understand the complexities of oil profits in more detail, and hopefully I'll get a chance to study them in more detail one of these days. The problem I have with complexity, is that it generally equates to obfuscation of the true process (CDOs were...

Although I'm no expert on CRACK (I guess you need to be to understand the crude oil/gas relationship arguments vs. reality), one study I have done was to look at XOM profits and their relationship to gas prices. One thing is for certain-- regardless of any kind of hidden costs one can come up...

:D ...and don't expect the volatility to abate anytime soon. There will be more large days coming.

U.S. planning to buy equity in financial institutions -------------------------------------------- any equity the government purchases ...would be on a non voting basis... Get the presses rolling, time to see the other side of volatility.:D ______________________________...

It's not unlikely to expect equal volatility in either direction at the next day. So don't be too quick to discount a possible 10% up day out of nowhere (even a gap if the short interest is there).

Difference is that the 87 carnage took all of 4 days to hit a cumulative pk drop zone of -28% before the devastation was done. In 9 days, S&P has already hit a cumulative drop of -25%, so it's just a slightly slower fatality. I.e. can't just compare one day volatilities as apples to apples...

It should be quite obvious that there was a trend the last seven days-- take s&p500 for example -- as all of them have been down. Furthermore the cumulative loss in just 9 days was -25%. Add to that the fact that the Zscore for 6 of the days has exceeded 4 sigmas (including a 1 day sigma of...

I verified that I DID have the sent box checked. Yet, practically every time it does not store the outgoing PM in my sent box per request. Can a moderator look into why this is the case? I also do not have the request read receipt feature as your example shows. So clearly to start out...

Good Question: they have it at 22.5 on S&P500 website. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,11,0,0,0,0,0.html I think it has to do with their methodology, if you use operating 12ttm EPS then 984.94/(sum of the most recent 4...

thank you. So it seems that is selected by default. For some reason I see it now, but do not recall seeing the option this morning. I looked for it and do not recall finding the option then; it was for a private message reply. Is there any way for a mod to verify that my most recent PM had...

I often notice that when I reply to PM's there is no copy recorded in the sent folder. Is there something I need to mark to retain a copy of the sent file? Then every now and random then, a copy will actually surface in the sent box.:confused:

Absolutely hilarious. Progressively funnier starting with the deer in the headlight at 15% RFLMAO. Thanks for the comedy in this absolutely fubar wall street and pals disaster. :D

There are routers that allow you to choose between cable or DSL and have an additional phone modem backup. If one method dies, you can switch to the other. Either option will output standard ethernet. It's conceivable that you can use the rj11 phone backup as the DSL line and have it...

Anyone familiar with using equation editor and having it return blank boxes for entering basic symbols on keyboard (like equal sign)? Is there a simple way to download the latest equation fonts somewhere on the web? TIA