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That is one outstanding quote. I'd like to find a poster with it.

Very Nice Work maler! A rarity here on ET. Someone posted some actual (verifiable and objective) work and shared it. A new poster to boot. Although I did not fully verify (yet), it looks sound; 2 things stand out. 1) Ret col sign is backwards (although the error didn't translate...

Mean or drift component. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_brownian_motion

I am saying random walk (in the gaussian sense) and edge are not mutually exclusive. A positive offset is an edge. Forget about patterns, just think about probability, expectation, and central tendency with large numbers... what does that mean to you? There were some earlier threads were...

what makes you think edge cannot exist in a random walk environment? In fact, I'd prefer a more truly (gaussian) random walk environment to be frank. Markets are actually worse than random in the sense that most perceive (gaussian/IID). Take 1000 IID normal distributions with a positive...

I think there have been questions regarding the veracity of his claims. Regardless, any retail trader following his advice today will likely get their head dismembered by the market. Concentrating and compounding size was one of the earlier lessons the market taught me not to do (touching fire...

Indeed. Look forward to reading his new work. Thanks for sharing.

He isn't Taleb, but the resonance is definitely present. Keep in mind, Taleb never said that your path is "entirely" determined by chance. Rather, he points out that it is a combination of luck and effort. Just as your fate is a combination of heredity and environment. By working harder at a...

Talon, For someone who's posted only 132 times, you've obviously contributed a lot of sage advice to others. As I told you they want the fish (I didn't want to post the singal evidence at first, but knew few would believe until they saw it in a book-- probably won over a few, but even fewer...

Thanks Maestro, As you know, I think likewise. I hope my interrupts are not disruptive to your outstanding commentary, as I know that you are truly gifting others with some novel and hard earned wisdom.

You expected an answer based on experience, evidence, and academic corroboration would all refute your claim? You asked how we view the ema type systems, and whether they are better than random, I gave my response; maybe someone has a better view. I'm always open to learn new things. I've...

A bit more food for thought... Not only did he reach similar conclusions, but he also found (as I did) that the common crossover strategies perform so bad, that you can often obtain net positive results by flipping the conventional rules! I believe this result has something to due with...

There's your first problem. I haven't even looked at that sample, but cherry picking is not a good way to draw conclusions. I'm assuming you are referring to crossover type systems, although turning points suffer the same lag problem. I long ago concluded that the basic 2 optimized average...

When you are ready to step up from coin tosses and binomial dist., you can download this free simulator from wolfram based on stable distributions (worse than normal and closer to markets!). Remember, these are random series based on some underlying random distribution. Seems like we tend to...

Yes... and thank you.

Too late to edit earlier post, but I'm a bit sick today. Funds must buy on effective date (not announcement) to minimize tracking error. He also mentions that the phenomena was relatively recent (since announcement delay lag didn't happen till sometime in the 90s). It is the anticipation...

Talon, you do realize that the 2nd system you mention is also in the same book? I was just wondering, since when you were asking about why the add/drop phenomena exists, there is a very detailed discussion about arbitragers front-running the announcement and knowing that funds must buy on...

I considered all the prior questions in my response, including yours. A word of thanks means a lot around here, and goes a long way towards picking brains. :) Here's another way to think about how and how our minds perceive information (and there are plenty of papers related under the ideas...

Don't want to get into an argument about it (draw your own conclusions), but it is well known in the neurophysiology community that the brain organizes activity in a chaotic manner looking for attractor regions that minimize energy states. Much the same way that AI (including regression) systems...