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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    sure ill go through one from the beginning but as there is nothing going on in the EU/USD ill have to post a historical trade not live.
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    which part are you not yet quite understanding? concept? preparation/spreadsheet/research? or application?
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    good im glad i have people listening :) let me know you guys are alive out there and if you have any questions about anything please feel free to ask about anything i wanna be as clear as possible. as ive been just kinda going through the basic concept and how the basic concept can be...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    yes please in here and not in my PM box cause most people are asking the same questions.
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    remember on our other 3hr trades 35-70 was our ranges.. heres the candles on the 30 min chart its in the middle square the bottom line is open and top is a missmarked high because im not perfect. note how it pushes down low comes back on the first bar and comes back creating the low before...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    now lets take a look at a chart heres a 3hr candle were gonna break it down to 30 min candles the one in the vert lines is the one we are looking at. specifically the 3hr on eur/usd on jan 8th starting at 0800. 0-1.36155 H-1.36998 L-1.36056
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    when we sort though this data we can see the flow of numbers and distribution shows that distances from open have meaning as the curve suggests and within certain levels of accuracy we can define limits to how a candle will form. such as if a candle forms 7 pips on one end and passes through...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    note that in order for this data once configured to be a viable strategy and not curve fit (i believe is the name for it) we must run extensive tests on OOS(out-of-sample data).. this is a trap many new trader fall into when they say hey i have a great system they backtest it make it work just...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    Heres some stats run on long side distances from open.. stats: 80% are 10 pips from open or more 60% are 15 pips from open or more 50% are 16 pips from open or more 25% are 25 pips from open or more extreme distance of 40 or more pips happened 8.7% of the time.
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    here imageshack is not worth the effort
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    in this image we can see the distribution of short side from open distances. some stats on short sided distances. of a 1000 bar sample 1 hour 26.13% was at 3 pips or less 51.7% was at 5 pips or less 71.3% was at 7 pips or less 95.6% was at 14 pips or less 4.4% was greater than 14...
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    fade or follow new highs/lows?

    statistical formation over a large sample shows counter trend fading to be very accurate if your scalping for fixed points as i cant verify through stats that after making a new high/low counter trend fading works as ive not tested that. but what i have is the hour formation with/against the...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    will be away on vacation next like week so ill bump this when i get back
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    You guys aren't going to believe me but...

    i lol'ed a little at that
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    How many of you promised to stop trading and get a real job in 2009?

    yeah really i think your at more financial risk now trying to find a job and if you can holding on to it is riskier than trading.
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    neither side triggered over 3 hours low range candle formed. bias still up next 3 hr will be traded same way.
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    if neither the stop get hit or the take profit and im still in the trade on close... i close the trade as i run stats on bars themselves i trade bars themselves and can say with accuracy the next bar will continue to move
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    yeah maybe this will help we are measuring bar lengths from open because we need a fixed point and variables. it doesnt much matter what you label it only the points the chance of it hitting distance points matter and how the bar forms.. all of these are equally important. when we are taking...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    im gonna post only 3 hour charts real trades so i can be real accurate with numbers as 3 hour charts give me more time...
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    direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

    was a good candle but formed down went to the line and reversed extended down trade not initiated line was at 12 price went to 12.1 i didnt fill ran down
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