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I seem to have lost my comment I was typing. Implied volatility vs Monte Carlo is intriguing as a comment. The followup by somebody mentioning implied volatility as the default sounds okay? My limited application of volatility is to do with premium ballooning when a trend is in force...

Hmmmn! TOS has three different volatility strategies? I´m only familiar with the volatility number you kick up they have. But I don´t use it at all. Maybe I should? Something here I am missing and do not understand. Re- your number of trade losses. I looked back and I see you...

Howard I just counted your colored chart lines of trades reported and you just sent 5 or 7 losing trades or something like that in the months since August I think. Don´t remember. But a quick check saw 2 losers per month you reported.

re-post from Credit Spread forum - Howard Cohodas I did run a SPY and OEX straight buying in CALLS for the expected rebound. Kept it simple with 5 contracts in SPY at a !.36 and 1 contract in the OEX at $9.20. Finished at the end of the day with gains in both. Though SPY made more with 5...

Stevegee I follow your explanation, but Howard´s query involved a volatility comment and also a declaration of making the 3% in 3 days, which i did not understand. ___________________________________ With an average of 2 losses per month and currently 22 trades for the...

I would like to get your take on this as I didn´t understand it. " Hmmm. I just checked. You can open a PUT 555/550 spread with a PoT on the short strike of 14% for a 3% return in 3 days. And there is good volume today. What more do you want? P.S. Are you using the Fixed volatility per...

Howard You lost me there! Explain further? _______________________________ " Hmmm. I just checked. You can open a PUT 555/550 spread with a PoT on the short strike of 14% for a 3% return in 3 days. And there is good volume today. What more do you want? P.S. Are you...

Well I did try to apply your POT to the weeklies in the OEX. There was no premium out the money that far, where you got the POT readings. So scratch weeklies for your methodology. Two months does give you time to take market swings. I just hit on the third time of looking, and now...

Howard Well you seem to be doing something right according to your returns? Mind you for six months, this doesn´t reflect the early in 2010 big market swings. However, assuming you were able to close spreads at your 20% of loss it does seem to be a winning system on an annual basis...

Arnie Guitar I´m looking for a bounce. Assuming the January rush is nearing over, the 1,2,3 formation for a down move is technically probable. So while I also have a Bull Put Spread still safely out there another 4% for a market drop, I am considering closing the spread on the bounce...

Howard I´m still trying to figure out your methodology. I´m looking at my IC. Calculating from the BUY BACK costs, different than the credit you receive. On the credits i got .60 cents a side for the IC. Sunday morning and I´m fresh so I can think about this a bit. The buy back...

Brook Rimes Well for December I switched out of credit spreads weeklies to straight option buyiig on the OEX and so far for December, January I´m up 16% in total on capital. I´m going to give SPY a try this next month of February as well. 1 cent spread between Bid and Ask is great...

That POT business takes up new meaning in your chart now I know where to find it. Plus a check shows it doesn´t agree with Delta either. wonder how they figure it? Nice move this morning, but I had no warning and no indication so missed the move. DARN! The EMINI gave no warning either.

How many options in a SPY contract?

Brook Rimes Thanks for the heads up on closer spread indexes. RUT, SPY and QQQQ. Stevegee50 Thanks for the POT. I found it on the TOS funny money web site. Indeed it does read different than the DELTA. Same 6% deviation and on the CALLS it was 23% POT and on PUTS it was 51%...

Howard has one of his entry criteria as less than POT. Or equivalent Delta. Most people who use delta try to stay under Delta 10. Howard is saying ( I think ) his criteria is that there is a chance of less than 20% of POT. I´m not accustomed to this POT reference. So I am assuming this...

Brook Rimes I had read that before about needing .60 cents or greater in sold premiums. In weeklies you do not get that. You are working with 30 cents thereabouts. I had that in mind when I legged into this IC over two days. Got .60 cents on both sides. The thing is it is the...

What I´m getting from Howard is that he is closing spreads that win 80% or so. Or before the market reverses and he loses it again due to collapse of volatility or something like that. The comment by Brook Rimes seems pertinent. The credit spread is about selling Time Decay. So why not go...

Howard Hmmn! Another dull day in the straight option buying. Not enough volatility. So this morning I completed an Iron Condor for an experiment in the OEX. The spreads are 6% deviation away from the market on March, or 60 day options. Both sides credited .60 cents. When I look at...

Hmmmn! Just had a lunch of Luncheon meat and onion. Wife and brother in law, took off for shopping across the border in Guatemala this morning. Rejuvenated by food, I started thinking something is wrong here? When I sold the Vertical Put Credit Spread, the quote was for .40 cents...