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Nononsense, since you have been around these parts for a bit, would you like to chime in? This thread will surely be referenced in the future.

Ah, you asked THE QUESTION. There is no such thing as 100% reliability in any field that I know, so I would say that for me, and acceptable outcome would be a tolerance of error of +/- 1 percent. This tolerance is achieved in the engineering and medical fields, so that would be acceptable to...

Thank You for your contribution, Jack.

Or perhaps a black swan:D

So, is your indicator accurate 8 out of EVERY 10 sequences. Your indicator may give false signals 2 times out of 10 for 10 consecutive sequences and then be right 80 times in a row. This is still 80% accuracy, but with radically different effects to your bottom line.

I do not support nor oppose random walk. I do believe that markets are largely irrational.

Black Swans come along(Hitler in Germany) that modify a group of humans behavior. The larger the crowd, the lower the IQ, the greater probability of irrational and/or random events. If human behavior were predictable we would definitely have our utopia by now, and no trade imbalances...

I would never considered a critical argument a flame. This another good post.

FINALLY, I drew the post I was looking for out this band of merry traders. A synopsis of consistency out of chaos. EDIT: After reading this again, I need to ask, do trends exist BEFORE they occur? How do we know it is a trend until AFTER it occurs? Great post Charlie Dow.

Why do use assume that random walkers don't make money? In a random market there is an infinite number of ways to make money. Managing risk is the only way to KEEP it, though. The black swan will get you....be patient.

Have you not just describe randomness under a different milieu?

At some point, however, the positive feedback loop ends. That is when that preverbial last contract is bought or sold. That is when one "got in at the top" or "got out at the bottom" There is no way to determine when this will happen. It is a random event.

Then am I correct to say that an axiom is an act of faith? We just have to "believe" that it is true?

Mathematics, to my very limited understanding of it, becomes probability beyond a certain point. I read somewhere that there are some axioms that still have no proofs.

To those who played the coin toss simulator there were some great trends in there weren't they? All we need to do now is backtest the data and out comes a system! Backtesters......Fooled by Randomness.

We agree on supply and demand, but what is the engine that drives supply and demand? If that engine is random, then the results from that engine will be random as well. If all of Americas loans were called today, the US dollar is worthless. Yet many will still say that the Treasury note...

Here a quick study on pattern formations http://www.agribiz.com/merchdiz/cointoss/cointoss.html

My trading is just as random as yours:D But how do I, or you, really know? Maybe it just works right now. Maybe I will blow up today, especially if I bet the farm on that test of support on lower volume that I know is coming today...or is it higher volume:confused: Anyway, as another...

Univariate. Trading one instrument against another I have not studied enough to present an argument to as discerning a group as the traders here on elite.:)

I draw an imaginary line across the middle of screen, and price stops above and below that line all day. Does that make my line a predictor of market behavior? Maybe that line simply represents my beliefs about market behavior, that happened to be right on that particular day.