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LTCM used their models to try to predict the market and the black swan got them. My assertion of market randomness is that markets cannot be predicted.

If they are motivated then they will sell their shares for a lower than stated price. I think I see where you may be going, but let's play it out anyway.

Welcome aboard.... The assertion is that there is no way to tell when that trend will end, or how far it will go. We all know that markets can be traded, the question is can markets be predicted. I got this from Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness. In it he asserts that prognosticators are...

That's what I meant, they both have the same models, taking opposite sides of that model. LTCM, funny you should mention that. I think I saw on NOVA one year that LTCM knew that something was horribly amiss, in time enough for most funds to react, and had they not been the oil tanker trying...

So Niederhoffer and Taleb have the best way to trade then? And if so then we must simply learn to live with black swans?

ProfLogic... It is not necessary to hide behind a moniker to contribute to the discussion. As a student of yours, I have found that there is no way to anticipate whether or not we have a trend until leg 3 is completed. Just as there is no way to draw one of Jack's channels until we have point...

Is everyone equally motivated to sell their shares? I think that would be a factor in how the game is to be played.

I think it would be random in the sense that it is not known where in the specified probable range price will be.

Yes, there is abnormal distribution in the market, but we have no idea when that overreaction will occur, or how badly the overreaction will be. It is not predictable, so would that not be random?

Thanks, what is your definition of random, if I may ask?

From Education of Speculator, Vic used math models to find anamolies in the market. I think what happened is one his anamolies turned out to be a black swan for him. It worked every other time, but that time it didn't, and boom!:eek:

Actually, what Jack is saying is that he is about producing exicitement rather than fear in a relationship. Always check to make sure that you are experiencing eustress rather than distress. Hope that helps Regards Oddi...trader---and registered nurse.

Since there exist, and I never considered this, different definitions of random, which definition of random would fit the market? Taleb speaks about considering the outcomes that DID NOT happen, as well as the one that did. If we consider a number of the possible outcomes of "random"...

Please post info on "fat tails" as I don't know what they are. If you could please show the relevance to the randomness discussion that would be even better.

Jack, the document path is not valid, try posting your quiz again.

The mere act of discussion is mind expanding to the trader. Some newbie is reading this thread, and your words have influenced their behavior. You may have created the next Market Wizard via the butterfly effect.:)

My response is the error in thinking in small numbers and the resulting overconfidence that it brings. In other words, is your representative sample large enough? Have you been correct 75% of the time for say 10 years, or mere 10 months. Something to consider.

We all see trends, but we only see them in hindsight. That is what I humbly submit to you. The future is a random event, the variables are impossible to calulate. I assume all the traders here make money, and I presume that we all have different ways to view the market as well.

Are you certain, absolutely certain, that you are not confusing a prediction with a guess that happens to be correct?

As long as humans have free will, then you cannot seriously say that human behavior can be predicted, it can only be approximated.