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  1. NoDoji

    ES Journal - 2013

    I've found that despite placing my stops at the most obvious levels on every trade, I'm only stopped out near the high/low tick of a price turn a tiny % of the time. Anyone unfamiliar with how to identify and trade ranges and chop zones properly will find themselves constantly stopped out this way.
  2. NoDoji

    Historical probablility based exits ?

    I'd love to connect with TJ on Skype and hear him make advance trade calls based on his models with max stop loss and minimum target at the time of the order placement. I did that in ET's chat room for months and I did it a couple years later with a Skype group for about 7 months all day long :cool:
  3. NoDoji

    Historical probablility based exits ?

    Since developing a system that works, I've posted many real time trades (entries and exits) to demonstrate specific price action setups I use and my thought processes behind the trades (as recently as a few days ago, in fact), and often include charts for visual illustration. I also kept my...
  4. NoDoji

    Historical probablility based exits ?

    Hmmm...what I do works pretty darn good. Would starting a journal and posting entries and exits in real time make it work better? Seems I might get distracted. I used to post all my trades in chat rooms, but found that as an intraday scalper of (what used to be) a volatile instrument, I do much...
  5. NoDoji

    ES Journal - 2013

    I understand that anyone can expect a lot of stops to be within a few ticks of key levels (range extremes, round numbers, triangle shelves/floors, etc.) but I'm more interested in knowing if any entity knows exactly how many stops at a given price will initiate a new position and how many will...
  6. NoDoji

    ES Journal - 2013

    Ammo, with regard to futures contracts, who (exchanges, brokers, market makers?) can see stop orders (all we can see is some levels of visible limit orders) and, most importantly, can anyone tell how many of the stop orders at a price level are initiating orders (new positions) vs. offsetting...
  7. NoDoji

    ES Journal - 2013

    Their performance may not catch up, but at least their portfolios will have the right ingredients in them :p
  8. NoDoji

    Getting out of trades too early

    What's been imprinted on your psyche is 1) the relief you feel when your early exit saves you from a loss 20% of the time, and 2) the relief you feel when you extract some money from the market and are now free from that "mental torture". So your bad habits have been associated with...
  9. NoDoji

    Historical probablility based exits ?

    For me, developing a consistently profitable trading plan was based purely on probabilities of price movements within price action environments that, historically, have repeated again and again (strong trend, channeling trend, wide range, narrow range). The fact is: 95% of aspiring traders don't...
  10. NoDoji

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    Mav, you gotta love that ZERO RISK in the SP500 sim account! :D
  11. NoDoji

    Gotta love ZERO RISK in the SP500 = $$$

    I do agree that when trading a well-defined trend, it really does feel like the market is just throwing money my way :p
  12. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    I thought that was a pretty basic feature of any charting package; you sure Ninja can't do that??
  13. NoDoji

    The CL/NQ experiment

    If you're short, we're consolidating near highs in a strong uptrend. Don't lose sight of that.
  14. NoDoji

    The CL/NQ experiment

    End the day where price tells you this trade thesis no longer has a reasonable R:R for your plan.
  15. NoDoji

    CL Redux

  16. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    Often I use a fixed target (limit order) placed in advance if a reasonable technical level is around that price. But in a well-defined trending move, I generally watch the reaction and decide to hold for more or lock in 20 ticks. The earlier long trade from .54, I watched price break the HOD and...
  17. NoDoji

    Is the larger time frame overrated?

    If you're too late to the party during well-defined trends, then you must be waiting for galaxies to align before heading to the party. :D
  18. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    Sometimes if a move is really strong and blows through my minimum profit target level, I'll trail for more, but in the price action environment we've had lately, I tend to just try and get 20 ticks, sometimes less if there's not enough airspace from my entry to the next key level. If the market...
  19. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    These mid 90's are key levels on the daily chart: Swing high zone from 12/11 and previous support (which tends to act as resistance) from 9/30 swing low zone.
  20. NoDoji

    CL Redux

    Here's a 1-min chart of the long setup. The upper line is the 60-min upper channel line and the lower line is the 5-min upper trend line drawn across the 9:30 and 10:20 highs (ET). These lines automatically transfer to all three of the time frames I use (5-min main, 60-min for key levels, 1-min...
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