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Hold on, I'll let you know as soon as I'm done scratching my head :p :p

My guess is you'd get a score of 28 :D

It seemed to me to be a test of risk intelligence as related to an understanding of probabilities. If you don't know, you choose 50 because a guess is a pure gamble, so you're better off sitting on the sideline until you get something you know. In trading, if you know there's positive...

Well, it's a moving average, so it may well have been different in real time. The high of the 9:42am ET bar today came a tick or two shy of the 1-min 20EMA, setting up a perfect 1st entry (no inside bars). Again, I'm looking at the chart now; in real time that EMA may have been higher.

I don't know if FB has a specific "personality" or is basically generic in its price action, but I'll share something that's helped me avoid the "whipsaw" you encountered and you can study this idea. I keep a 20-bar EMA on the 1-min chart. This is a guide to where price is likely to pull back...

:D My SON and daughter-in-law are enjoying the season with their year-old BBY. My homemade hot spiced AAPL cider will be ready in ABT an hour. I look forward to getting BAC to trading in the New Year and I'd like to WSH you ALL a wonderful holiday!

Ditto

Make that "for weeks" not days.

You had a very nice equity curve for days, then crumbled. Did you change what was working, or was your methodology flawed?

You remind me of my favorite "just stick with one plan" story. I was trading oil and watched three trades in a row show me just a wee bit more than my minimum profit target and come all the way back to stop me out break even. All three trades would've been fulfilled had I placed .20 hard...

I know its to kind of me but I'd like to point out that your missing an apostrophe.

My discretion tended to get me in trouble and the more objective I got, the better the outcome over time. The market environment varies, but price action is price action. Develop rules for recognizing and trading (or not trading) strong breakout/trend, channeling trend, and range...

I'd like to emphasize that your current method appears to be producing fine results. The method I illustrated for larger targets is something I reserve for strong breakout/trend conditions only.

I'm posting an example from today. In choppy conditions, or in a channeling trend (where the new highs/lows are rather shallow), your fixed smaller targets make sense. But this morning there was a decent breakout, so a measured move type of continuation was likely.

I think order flow might be great for micro scalpers, but I was trading on Skype for a period of time with another trader narrating order flow based on the stuff the OP refers to and his "reads" were generally opposite my price action trades, most of which hit my profit targets.

I see you're trading oil this morning, too. :D

So you've analyzed this event over a sufficient series of occurrences to determine the average reduction in odds of price then hitting your target? Or are you making this decision based on how often it seems to have happened? 1:1 is only like betting if the odds are around 50/50 or negative...

I think your approach is excellent. The most frustrated traders I've encountered are those who don't have a specific plan of some sort. Instead they try to outsmart (or avoid developing) a simple plan and end up with far less than if they'd stick with a plan based on positive expectancy. I've...

Although the individual trader's management of a position that is entered based on a given model's signal, a maximum acceptable risk and minimum acceptable reward would at least provide an observer of your journal a benchmark for evaluation. You claim that your models time entries, yet you've...