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  1. M

    (ZB) 30 year T Bond

    Indeed, you can't have a price that looks like XXX'32. XXX'32 = XXX+1'00
  2. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    This too is kinda dumb... The guy runs a $20bn long only fund. He probably drew down arnd $2bn during the recent dump, but he's supposed to get excited over the $200mm VIX payoff?
  3. M

    So, does the market predict economic downturns, or cause it?

    What came first, the chicken or the egg burrito?
  4. M

    who were the largest speculators in xiv

    CS hedged the live stuff... The large bit retained wasn't really live, so it didn't need any hedges. And yes, my impression is that this is mostly a retail product. EDIT: correction: this WAS a retail product.
  5. M

    who were the largest speculators in xiv

    The large CS holding is not real, as it's just the stock they retained for liquidity...
  6. M

    LJM Preservation and Growth Fund, collapsed by 82 percent! (WTF?)

    Wasn't this the least aggressive of their 3 strategies? What happened to the "aggressive" strategy, I wonder...
  7. M

    Florida Man Who Raised $100 Million To Short The VIX Likely Returning To Old Job At Target

    Shareholders do cover company messes. In fact, shareholder's equity is the first thing that normally gets wiped out in an insolvency.
  8. M

    XIV and SVXY: possible liquidation by issuer

    https://www.credit-suisse.com/corporate/en/articles/media-releases/credit-suisse-announces-event-acceleration-xiv-etn-201802.html
  9. M

    Replicating XIV/SVXY through futures (without the funkness)

    Yes, the owners would have needed to pay, I expect. We know that the issuer is not in the business of taking a view on volatility. The issuer's job is to collect their fees, manage the assets, all while being as flat risk as possible at every point in time. So, as I described on another...
  10. M

    Replicating XIV/SVXY through futures (without the funkness)

    The sponsor was hedged, so it's unlikely they would have eaten anything...
  11. M

    Hearing the VIX products carnage crushed some Prop Firms

    It's probably true... The extent of the "negative convexity" of ETP issuers was pretty well flagged, though, ahead of time.
  12. M

    XIV and SVXY: possible liquidation by issuer

    Yeah, it's not that they're hedging XIV itself... They're, effectively, hedging their hedge, which will look increasingly nekkid as VIX goes up and XIV gets closer to the barrier. It's a pretty typical thing that happens with all the 1st generation exo stuff in FX. Just bigly short gamma.
  13. M

    ‘50 Cent’ Is Buying Up Big on March VIX Calls

    They might restrike it, I suppose... The point of these teeny calls is that they're a hedge for an large long-only equity portfolio. Just 'cause VIX has spiked doesn't mean you don't need the hedges.
  14. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    And this here is the absolute height of idiocy: http://www.businessinsider.com/vix-elephant-trader-returned-to-reap-gains-he-made-from-stock-chaos-2018-2 Apparently, being left naked short 250k+ March 25 calls is considered to be "taking profit". In fact, the Mammoth or the Elephant or...
  15. M

    ‘50 Cent’ Is Buying Up Big on March VIX Calls

    Exited? Why would he necessarily exit?
  16. M

    XIV and SVXY: possible liquidation by issuer

    Yeah, although I guess it depends on how they hedge exactly... Given the nature of this thing, I imagine they were probably pushing it, as VIX was going higher. It’s proper wrong-way risk for the XIV longs.
  17. M

    XIV and SVXY: possible liquidation by issuer

    Nah, let's look at their exposure apart from the bit which they retain (32%, I think; which I guess doesn't need to be hedged, as it's not really live). They sell XIV to the end investor. End investor ends up short vol, whereas CS ends up long and then they hedge it by selling vol. So at a...
  18. M

    XIV termination event?

    Probably not, but the bigly lesson here is to always read the prospectus... The devil is always in the details and there is never any free lunch.
  19. M

    XIV and SVXY: possible liquidation by issuer

    *CREDIT SUISSE CONFIRMS IT EXPERIENCED NO TRADING LOSSES ON XIV It's a tough gig to be a XIV investor, as it clearly would suggest that CS "hedging" pushed their own instrument into liquidation.
  20. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    Smth like that, I guess... As we discussed a while ago, it's bigly short vol of vol and I can't imagine it's having a good day today.
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