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  1. M

    Swaption brokerage

    Sorry, I just realized I was being a numpty... I was thinking about bid/offer, while the OP was asking about bro specifically. I would agree with sle, bro is a function of either notional or vega, but predominantly notional, AFAIK.
  2. M

    Swaption brokerage

    IMHO, for must ATM or close to ATM strikes, it's per vega. For OTM, there are no rules and will depend on the dealer's inventory. Generally, I am not even sure "brokerage" is the right term.
  3. M

    Let's run off all the worthwhile posters , asap

    You have to behave like a proper emicile...
  4. M

    Swaption brokerage

    It depends and there is no single answer...
  5. M

    Chronic stress skews decision toward high-risk/high-benefit

    I understand, but in this particular case it's a stylised experiment... I am just trying to understand the possible evolutionary rationale. I suppose what I am trying to say is that I am having trouble with a concept of "chronic stress" for an animal. Isn't it possible that even short-term...
  6. M

    Chronic stress skews decision toward high-risk/high-benefit

    From an evolutionary standpoint, what is a state of "chronic stress" for an animal, such as a rodent? If it suggests an ever increasing probability of the said rodent's imminent demise, doesn't high risk/high payoff behaviour make sense?
  7. M

    Trade recommendation New Zealand Dollar Futures - risk free money

    I agree. Also, it's very important to appreciate just how special New Zealand actually is, as far RBNZ is concerned. Firstly, let's not forget that NZ created the inflation-targeting central bank model, which is now nearly universal across the developed world. Secondly, unlike in other...
  8. M

    Trade recommendation New Zealand Dollar Futures - risk free money

    To be sure, I am not suggesting that, if a bankster wants to get creative, they won't be able to come up with a way to cook up a magical trade that is off-mkt, risk-free and benefits all parties. As the most awesome example of this, I highly recommend you read this...
  9. M

    Trade recommendation New Zealand Dollar Futures - risk free money

    Actually, pretty much all contracts HAVE to be at current mkt prices, whether bilateral or otherwise. An off-mkt transaction such as you describe would likely be classified as "market abuse" by any regulator, so nobody would do it, unless compliance specifically signs off on it. And no, simple...
  10. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    OKI, I've consulted some knowledgeable peeps... This, IMHO, is gonna be DOA, as it's just a new mkt on the CME for a ratio'd spread between existing ED and FF contracts. It doesn't actually address the concerns around mismatched dates that currently make the OTC version significantly more...
  11. M

    FX spot rollover trading in the professionel market

    Cash balances are rolled daily, as a rule, as the previous poster says, unless there's a specific reason to do something different.
  12. M

    Trade recommendation New Zealand Dollar Futures - risk free money

    It's distinctly looking not very risk free today... I'd echo the previous poster in response to this: "say what?"
  13. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Actually, hold on a sec... @bone are you saying that this will be a new spread contract with its own spec? Or will this just be a new market on the exchange where I can more readily and efficiently trade the spread between the standard FF and GE contracts? If it's the latter, I can tell you...
  14. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Yes, the invoice spreads and the like trade, vs LIBOR and OIS both, Mav, but it's not the same spread. Not even close. They're two distinct mkts with their own dynamics. Trust me on this, pls, I am still staring at this sh1t all day long.
  15. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Erm, are you guys forgetting smth? The future of the reference rates for BOTH of the legs of these wondrous spreads is uncertain. If the various regulators and committees have their way, by 2021 there will only be one rate to rule them all. Obviously, it's all complicated, but this joy and...
  16. M

    macro paper trading

    IMHO, the various noises in NOKSEK are mostly about crude (doesn't make the moves sensible, I'd argue, but still...). The drop yesterday looked like it coincided with the move lower in Brent. I agree that the move today didn't make a lot of sense. No, I have not heard this theory before. To...
  17. M

    macro paper trading

    It's the usual story... Sympathy with Sweden (esp since the housing mkt "correction" might be a common theme between the two), but, more broadly, a washout of various panicked tourists at the slightest hint of things going as little pear-shaped. Probably suggests that EUR/Scandi shorts...
  18. M

    Annual return>40% for SP500. Hope I can find someone that can work together.

    What's the Sharpe? Does the system hit the bid/lift the offer or is it based on placing orders?
  19. M

    ES→SPX ≈ 3pts! Here comes the interest rates!

    I ain't an expert, but I would agree with sle... Interest rates don't really make that much of a difference, while dividends do. Looking where the divvy futures are, it would seem that it's all fair.
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