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  1. M

    Calculating implied rate hike probabilities of other countries

    It's really quite simple (which, incidentally, is why people use these)...
  2. M

    Calculating implied rate hike probabilities of other countries

    There are no OIS futures in Canada. There are BOC meeting-dated OIS which are relatively liquid and active. Those are used, normally, to imply rate probabilities. And these represent OIS forward curves. For a variety of reasons, it's much harder to do all this with options or other...
  3. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    From what I've read, it seems that the House version would eliminate both, while the Senate one would preserve both. This is from the (fake) WaPo: "The House bill would repeal the tax deduction for student loan interest, which allows people repaying student loans to cut their tax burden by as...
  4. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    Correction, it's the House version that eliminates the deduction, not the Senate...
  5. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    Investors are doing all sorts of things at the moment... As history demonstrated, investors cheering certain phenomena is hardly a necessary or sufficient condition for these things to end well.
  6. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    I can't possibly disagree with this... There's precedent and evidence aplenty to support this view.
  7. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    To be fair, like Mav said, one of the differences between the House and the Senate versions of the bill has to do with the treatment of student loan interest deduction and tuition waivers. Is it possible/likely that the final "reconciled" bill looks more like the House version than the...
  8. M

    Equation for volatility surface parametrisation

    SABR (you can find Pat Hagan's famous paper with all the specific formulae on the web) is one well-known method, but it's probably beyond the scope of the discussion here. In the "simpler" world of FX, this paper by Wystup etc offers a method (discusses what Kevin talks about above)...
  9. M

    Yellen: $20 trillion national debt 'should keep people awake at night'...what does she know....

    I'm in, although you've forgotten my fav subject, @Sig... We will also need to discuss that Britney Spears is actually an extraterrestrial alien.
  10. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Yeah... For an institutional, there's apparently some relative margin benefit vs the OTC version of the LOIS trade, but this is offset by the various imperfections.
  11. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    And now it turns out that the margin stuff is a red herring... The 65% reduction is a result of the regular netting that would occur even if you legged ED contracts vs FF, w/o using the new high-falutin' spread mkt (just as I suspected).
  12. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Ye, sure... I just think it's one of those things that's just a little bit too weird to work. I mean if they wanted to let peeps trade LOIS the way most institutionals would do it (two derivative contracts with matched dates and mostly matched conventions, so that everything is in line), they...
  13. M

    New !! CME Fed Funds-Eurodollars Exchange Spread

    Strictly speaking, bone, you're incorrect... Both LIBOR and FF are both unsecured interbank rates, albeit involving different underlying panels of banks. As to this spread, the more I ask people questions about it (including the people who provided the main impetus for the introduction of this...
  14. M

    Yellen: $20 trillion national debt 'should keep people awake at night'...what does she know....

    You really have to stop this conspiracy nonsense. While the relationship is varied and "interesting", the Board does not "answer to the primary dealers". That's just a silly thing to say.
  15. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    Firstly, I am pleased that you recall my "Goldman call". Nothing all that wrong with it, IMHO. Secondly, again, I just dunno why I always manage to elicit such snarky responses from you, but it's ok, I can deal. Finally, the interpretation I have heard is that the treatment of capex by this...
  16. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    Well, it's 1.5trln of something, I'd say... It's likely to have a bigly yuge effect in the first half of 2018. After that, it remains to be seen.
  17. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    I was actually being sarcastic, you know? Ken is no more a socialist than, I dunno, Ayn Rand or smth (and I know all that stuff about her)...
  18. M

    iphones --free markets beat so called government regulated natural monopolies.

    Would you like me to list some examples?
  19. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    I am not really sure what FTT has to do with anything... I would maybe suggest that you don't call people who dislike this particular tax cut anything, since many of them have different rather nuanced arguments. For instance, just to pull a random name out of a hat (since I just read a...
  20. M

    Trump Tax Reform - a total squeeze on middle class W2 workers

    That's what happens... You go to sleep as a good, God-fearing capitalist. You wake up next morning, BAAAM!, you're an evil, atheist anti-American Socialist!
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