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Google 'expected value'. Then note that the first coefficient is the probability (i.e. the probability of success). Also note that the sum of the coefficients in my formula always sum to 1 (or very very close). e.g. .87 + .106 + .02 = .996 Understanding what the probability and expectation MEAN...

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/28/business/gilead-faces-fights-over-hepatitis-c-and-hiv-drugs.html?_r=0 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GILD+Interactive#{"range":"5y","allowChartStacking":true} Gilead's ride may be over... or at least attenuated: Trade: with GILD at 89.63 Jan '17 125/130...

"where are they going from here?" I'm not the only one asking that question: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apples-iphone-slumping-whats-next-215428646--finance.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-why-apple-aapl-212409203.html

I am surprised to see the gap down in AAPL today. I agree with Fletcher... the 'disappointment' was already in the price. On the other hand I don't see AAPL as a 'bargain' either. Where are they going from here??? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=aapl

In the posting you reference I showed both a bullish and a bearish trade... depending on how you felt about IBM at that time. How do you know I didn't take the bearish trade?? Actually I have not done well with IBM in the real world: Date........... Action.... ...Qty.... Symbol/Description...

I have detailed how I come up with these trades and the meaning of the calculations several times on this board. I really cannot do it again right now. Sorry

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-iphone-sales-weaker-expected-220130131.html http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-results-idUSKCN0V42P9 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/setting-iphone-record-apple-forecasts-214631027.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ceo-tim-cook-were-222946752.html...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-join-global-rally-153102948.html# http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=uso Bottom? Trade: With USO at 9.27 July 8/6 bull put spread for a net credit of $46 Yield = 46/154 = 29.9% in 174 days or 63% annualized Prob = 55% Expectation = .55(46) - .22(154) -...

That's the building: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verizon_Building https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelsea,_Manhattan I'd love to live there but probably can't afford it. edit: No probably about it: http://ralphwalkertribeca.com/availability

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/verizon-vz-tops-q4-earnings-154203319.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/nelsongranados/2016/01/21/2015-earnings-how-verizon-sustains-current-business-while-disrupting-itself/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#2715e4857a0b51f76ab6f959...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/johnson-johnson-cut-3-000-145718640.html http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/01/will-2016-be-johnson-johnsons-best-year-yet.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GREK+Interactive#{"range":"2y","allowChartStacking":true} http://www.wsj.com/articles/which-of-europes-piigs-might-fly-1452482740?mod=yahoo_hs :-)

.http://www.nasdaq.com/article/6-drug-stocks-that-look-to-beat-the-market-in-2016-cm567081 http://www.thestreet.com/story/13421071/1/united-therapeutics-uthr-is-strong-on-high-volume-today.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UTHR+Key+Statistics...

It's interesting that most people have little knowledge of Saudi Arabia, even though the 'Muslim Problem' we experience in the western world is rooted in Saudi Arabia and the brutal, insane society that exists there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy That Sept 125/120 is now paying $46 (bid) and prob is at 92% Looks like it still has a little further to go.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SPY+Interactive#{"range":"10y","allowChartStacking":true} http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy Trade: With SPY at 188.83 Sept 125/120 bull put spread for a net credit of $26 Yield = 26/474 = 5.5% in 247 days or 8.1% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(26)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/celgene-celg-drops-preliminary-results-153003722.html http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/12/whats-next-for-celgene-corporation.aspx?source=eogyholnk0000001&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-hikes-u-prices-over-033356774.html?l=1#

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/strong-buy-stocks-january-11th-143002351.html http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/196441/allstate-q3-earnings-beat-on-strong-homeowners-business http://www.thestreet.com/story/13350153/1/allstate-all-stock-gains-after-earnings-beat.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO...

AAPL: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-iphone-slowdown-spells-doom-for-apple-2016-01-07 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-suppliers-rocked-by-report-of-plans-to-cut-jan-quarter-iphone-6s-production-2016-01-05...