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  1. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    Wait a sec, seeing as how I am a resident of Ye Olde Great Britain meself, you can't slip these sorts of things past me :) . It's beans on toast for us proles, n'est ce pas?
  2. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    Dining on the those very finest meats and cheeses as we speak, perhaps? Speaking of which, Cheese Futures anyone? Should go float this to the Merc, see what they say...
  3. M

    Fear of equity wipeout by the government.

    Actually, what might be going on is a lot more funky... There's all sorts of interesting developments with the market starting to price in a non-zero probability of a global, govt-engineered debt-to-equity swap for troubled firms, such as the financials (the rating agencies are considering the...
  4. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    Meats and Cheeses, you say? Like Wallace says, I do fancy a bit of Gorgonzola... So, upon reflection, pls feel free to thank me, as well, Ivan.
  5. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    Don't thank me... Thank him. It's A Bird, It's A Plane, It's Macro Man! :)
  6. M

    NonFarm Payrolls Forecast at -868 000 Jobs

    This guy has a pretty dire forecast (basically, 0.8 - 0.9% rise in unemployment)... http://macro-man.blogspot.com/
  7. M

    How to profit from Inflation

    Read this for a comprehensive look at the various options, based on the previous episodes.
  8. M

    Shhittygroup gonna break the buck today?

    Just traded @ $0.99. CDS blowing out 60bps to 550! Fun and games...
  9. M

    GM, here we go...

    For sure and I agree with you. I am trying to make a point that, due to the process being largely political at this point, the formalization of the obvious is meaningful, at least to me.
  10. M

    GM, here we go...

    You're seeing the obvious, but not seeing the point. Pls see my 12:40 post...
  11. M

    GM, here we go...

    Rightie... Has a GM auditor made such a statement in official documents before? Not to my knowledge, which makes the statement news, by definition. As to its significance, pls see my previous post.
  12. M

    What Are the Odds of a Depression? WSJ Op/Ed

    An interesting study, by a worthwhile author, but it's a hypothesis, no more, no less. I have seen so many of these recently and, frankly, I just don't give a damn, anymore.
  13. M

    GM, here we go...

    The mkt's view is not the point... Clearly, the fate of GM and, as a result, of a whole chunk of the American economy, depends on the outcome of a complex political process, determined by the interplay between moral hazard and fear of disorderly unwinding. The fact that the auditors are...
  14. M

    Newbie looking for tips to limit overtrading

    If you're single, best thing to do is to get married. Married men have been shown to trade less. If you're married, you will have to have a sex-change, 'cause women have been shown to trade even less. There's a solution for you.
  15. M

    ING in trouble?

    Yep, those are normally perps with non-cum coupons... You have to really stop thinking about them as bonds. They're only such for regulatory purposes (gotta love that). In reality, they're more like equity and, guess what, you ain't getting dividends on them. Moreover, deferring coupons on...
  16. M

    GM, here we go...

    Some more headlines: *GM'S HENDERSON TO GET 30% ANNUAL SALARY CUT FOR 2009 WSJ: GM Auditors Raise Doubts on Auto Maker's Viability *GM SAYS IF CHAPTER 7/11 FILED EVENT OF DEFAULT ON $11.4B LINE *GM WOULD FILE CHAP. 7 WITHOUT SUCCESSFUL PLAN OR DIP FINANCING GM Says Chief Wagoner Was Paid...
  17. M

    ING in trouble?

    Everyone arnd here in Europe is missing T1 coupons these days, so it's not exactly a very big piece of info. Like many a European bank, they're screwed, but then what else is new.
  18. M

    GM, here we go...

    According to Reuters/BBG, GM's Form 10-K contains a statement from the auditors that 'There's substantial doubt GM can continue as a going concern'
  19. M

    FDIC Could Become Insolvent This Year

    And we should listen to Lewis why? I agree that he's sorta the expert, but he has since demonstrated some significant flaws in his analytical and decision-making capabilties. As a result I try not to attach too much weight to his opinions and actions.
  20. M

    Option trading for a newbie

    Here's my question to you, Ben. I observe the following: 1. You're a retail trader. 2. All your option plays are purely on the delta. I don't see you mentioning dynamic hedging, skew or anything of the sort. 3. You're diligent with your stops and can tolerate loss, which means that you're...
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