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I think this is where Quantitative Easing gently morphs into Qualitative Easing!!! Yeeeeehaw!

I would have to disagree... If what you say is true, why is it that Alt-A paper has been trading at cents on the dollar for a while? The mkt clearly also disagrees with you that refi is gonna be a walk in the park, reason being that the index that will be used will not be anywhere near LIBOR...

That's right, everyone behaved irresponsibly, including AIG and the monolines. So, while I agree with your argument in general, the blatant disregard for risk management and the abuse of the effective implicit govt guarantee is particularly heinous in AIG's case.

FWIW, I am bearish, short and hurt(ing). Holding on to it, though, as conviction's high.

Well, this trade was paper buying the fly, so I am pretty sure it was the buy side. Also, with a structure like that it's very uncommon that this would be a part of something bigger or an unwind of an existing trade. Flies like that, where you attempt to pin the strike, are normally trades you...

I probably would have heard of the original trade, if this were an unwind. Also, that's what the broker chatter is suggesting...

Looks like rate lock activity arnd the Pfizer issue...

I would love to see your institutional study. Do you wanna make me a mkt on the probability that I can prove that its reasoning is either wrong or based on unrealistic assumptions? Here's your opportunity to put some money on the table... So what if it's a 'massive, 10 year test of an...

FWIW, interesting large flow today in stocks... Dec9 Eurostoxx 2000/1600/1200 put fly, 180k lots got bot for 77 ticks (ref 2010).

Incorrect and I completely disagree with a whole number of points. Firstly, the fact that there's an institutional study out there that argues a specific point is irrelevant. I can point you to a whole bunch of rigorous academic research out there that is either completely wrong or...

Firstly, like yourself I don't see any evidence, but neither do I require any. Why would I? Secondly, I don't know what she is, but I have no reason to believe that she is a maladroit and ne'er-do-well, as you claim, either. And, you know what, frankly I just don't give a damn. She can be...

You can ask the mkt (i.e. a few counterparties or a multi-dealer vendor) to reval the positions... The problem is the size of the positions vis-a-vis the (il)liquidity of the mkt, really.

I would have to disagree with you both, TZ and ILV. Firstly, I also believe that Fib and most other such TA stuff is quackery. And we have all seen lots of research and analysis that seems to prove it (in fact, most interesting research seems to suggest not that TA doesn't work, but that the...

To paraphrase Clausewitz, 'politics is continuation of economics by other means', so it's all one.

Funnily enough, the mkt went completely the other way last week. Partly due to the equity/risk asset rally, EUR sov CDS tightened quite significantly. Spain 5y moved in almost 30bps, while Austria 5y tightened 84bps. The latter was probably, to a large extent, driven by the SNB decision to...

I see what you mean... In IRS land, the on-the-run/off-the-run terminology is not used, 'cause it's easily confused with bonds.

IR swaps can't be on-the-run/off-the-run. You're confusing them with bonds. A CDS is an OTC contract that can be valued by any counterparty, given the reference obligation, maturity and other pertinent info.

My guess is that they didn't lend and borrow the actual CDOs, but rather the individual bonds etc that were probably used to hedge the various exposures of the portfolio. One possible scenario could be that, once the whole street knew what they had, they had to pay up A LOT to do anything in...

I think most retail brokers, like Fidelity or Charles Schwab, would be able to offer you bonds. In fact, you can go to the Charles Schwab website for some research, although I hear they're a pretty bad broker in US trsies. I am not sure about munis/corps.

A CDS is a bilateral OTC contract, which means that, theoretically, no two CDSs are created equal.