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  1. J

    Does Kelly method practically work for trading?

    Note that Kelly is related to winning ratio p and WL. So practically in trading, commission + tax is a kind of losing money. Losing to other player(trader) is almost same as losing to government(spending to other people) and house(broker), in personal account. In conclusion, do NOT trade too...
  2. J

    Youtube clip for Kelly formula

    Voice of William Poundstone who is the author of the book http://www.amazon.com/Fortunes-Formula-Scientific-Betting-Casinos/dp/0809045990/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1430647776&sr=8-4&keywords=poundstone 1) On page 99 in the book, Kelly is compared in long-term graph with Martingale and fixed...
  3. J

    Youtube clip for Kelly formula

    Another interesting clip is Suppose profit rate is annually 20% compounded, it takes less than 4 years by 1.2^4 = 2.0736 with extra annual dividend for equity.
  4. J

    Youtube clip for Kelly formula

    Roughly at 12 min in the above clip, he is talking about compounding / at 35 min about doubling time.
  5. J

    Youtube clip for Kelly formula

    Following Kelly gives you NO bankrupcy at all. (?)
  6. J

    Youtube clip for Kelly formula

    Dear- An interesting clip was found for a beginner lesson. IMHO, there might be huge profit difference in equity trading, with understanding and use of the Kelly.
  7. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    Roughly 90% of the traders tends to play like that, based on my personal experience. Also note that 90% or more does NOT even follow the index like SnP500. Only 10% or less 1) diversify with numerous stocks. 2) resist (hate) leverage to save ANY interest paid. 3) outperform the index change...
  8. J

    My books in my desk.

    IC. More work needs to be done myself. Thanks. PS) Although I began MATLAB back in 90's, recent progress like R/Python is far beyond, such as lapply in R but in not S+. But you should have offered your estimate. Equity is traded in the middle of A and B.
  9. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    online reading => online trading
  10. J

    My books in my desk.

    global catch my situation. I know mixing two language with csv communication might have many kinds of problem. However, due to many users in Python/IB, I guess it is a lot harder to find the R/API helper than Python. Therefore as an alternative mixing two might be my second choice. My daily...
  11. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    If he is correct, then how about closing online reading and allowing only in the building at Wall St?
  12. J

    My books in my desk.

    Before I start a new thread in other place, I like to hear whether someone was successful to connect to IB, with SwigiPy. Did you do the three works as above? If so, I may hire your weekend.
  13. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    Of course, I have a DVD for Matt Damon Rounders. I mean only a few have collateral debt. Real estate and equity and a car. But loan at House such as Rounders or loan at Pawnshop are another class.
  14. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    Losing in trading on purpose might be possible. Let your ratio be cash:loan=10:90 or more. If you repeat many times, you soon will be broke, even if you win some times. Best way to lose fast is such as 1:99. Most likely less than ten bets shall make you empty pocket. If you bet is 100:0...
  15. J

    My books in my desk.

    There are many useful R packages for TS in http://cran.r-project.org/web/views/Finance.html Specially quantmod package in first page at the link, seems for data feed of equity. 1) Is this real time feed? 2) It seems free, since it use yahoo.com. Also, another broker (TradeKing) offers R API...
  16. J

    My books in my desk.

    Currently, my favorite tool is R (close to S+). Recently I started Python so you are ahead about 4 years than me. Although I saw the above link http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/IBrokers/index.html , I cannot fully understood, probably due to my level. Hope someone to help me 1) Connect...
  17. J

    My books in my desk.

    Also interest in time series. IMHO, finding a good strategy in trading entry/exit is related to finding a "stationary statistics" in TS.
  18. J

    My books in my desk.

    Regarding " Programming language My choice: Python with numpy and pandas API access method My choice: swigpy ", I am going send you email possibly after a few days of studying. I was MATLAB and S+ user and am in the middle of changing to R / Python. I feel you are ahead of me. Thanks...
  19. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    One more difference. Stock brokers provide API for easy access to the server and Wall St, while poker like fulltilt.com and pokerstars.com do NOT provide API for trader's programming and maybe forever not.
  20. J

    Trading vs. Poker

    Many says mathematics is ultimate analysis in game. On my desk, there are two books 1) For trading, http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_c_0_31?url=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=mathematics of money management&sprefix=mathematics+of+money+management,aps,342 2) For poker...
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