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You can approach it differently too. The ES ATR range is approximately 25 pts. What you can consider a random fluctuation would be the square root of 25, meaning 5. Add one point for additional safety and you get 6. 1.5*6=9 and 9 is 1% of SP value, again approximately. You can easily get...

Well, why? The point is not about having opinions, but about having flexible opinions. Last night, I was expecting a dip in the morning in SP and a pullback later on and I was even thinking about an up close. Well, we did dive in the morning and had a pullback later on, but about 2:30 I was not...

That's a good one...:D

You might want to try this out on some simulator first, this could lower your potential costs and prepare you better for real battles. If you are not good enough on a simulator, you will most likely lose money in real conditions. The opposite thesis does not have to be true.

If you are stopped out too often, what kind of rewards are you talking about? The ratio is one thing, the frequency is another, but you cannot treat them completely separately. Your ratio is great, but if the frequency of your winners is too low compared to your losers, you will lose in the...

Interesting, I thought about doing something like that too. I am a very night person and being on the Left Coast I am forced to get up in the middle of my 'night' which does not suit me very much, so I thought about doing it just for one hour in the afternoon. In a sense, it's not that stupid...

Stops are too tight for this method and you would get too many losses, targets are OK. That's from my experience. I use targets of 9 pts in some of my systems, stops of 6 pts (in ES).

I don't know your system, so cannot advise you in this matter, but my first discretionary entry was long @929.5 (62 FR within the first 30 minute bar) with a stop loss of 2.5 (one tick below the bottom of first 30 min bar) and the target of 5, adjusted to 4 which got hit. I wish I waited longer...

I have recently noticed that I designed systems that were very good at picking major reversal points in SP, as I have seen this just the last 2 days. Should I share them with others? Well, the answer is: no, because this is my intellectual property and I know that it can sell well. I am afraid...

Thanks for the link, Cathy. I hope you won't be accused of being a salesperson for this guy this time...:cool:

True, it was not a good day for shorting with TRIN so small all the day. As far as making calls, I leave this to my systems. They are flexible enough to accomodate most situations. Even my discretionary trading will revolve about enhancing my systems rather than doing something they disagree...

62% retracements are better: your stop-loss can be smaller, they happen less frequently so you do not overtrade and you have a great opportunity to practice patience. :D This month alone you would have had 6 entries of this kind, each a winner (6 winners) with 6 pts at least. Keep it...

The range was not that great today, not even 20 pts, the gap was pretty small, so ATR was still less than 20 pts. When you have a strong breakout like the one we had yesterday it's not unusual to see at least two strong days to the upside in a row. Tomorrow will probably be a very cautious day...

Good point, I was about to raise it too.

Hmm... last night I wrote in one of the threads on this board that I was anticipating a breakout, probably to the upside. I put my money where my mouth was and scored 36.5 pts (with three ES contracts). I am really surprised that you don't know that what looks like a h&s one day may look the day...

Gee... I meant counter-trend trading... well this is a thread about simplicity, so I simplified that...:D

from what I just wrote is that if you cannot stand being bored, go with the trend and not against it.:cool:

Counter-trading requires more patience. You need to wait until the trend is showing clear signs of exhaustion. Most people cannot do it. You have to be almost bored waiting for this to happen, most people do not like to be bored, they cannot control their urges. Plus, sometimes, they want to...

Why? Don't you use stop-losses? You decide how much you are willing to lose and whether it is worth the potential gain. Always set your stop-losses so that your reward-risk ratio is at least 2, better even 3 and then wait until you get a set-up that could potentially give you that. The keyword...

My systems are much simpler than that. I do not you use any fancy indicators. But I know how to use what I use and how to interpret it.:D It's all about simplicity. It can also be applied to discretionary trading. Of course, I am not infallible. That's why I use stop-losses. :D