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TIPS finally breaking down and 10y-TIPS spread breaking down through recent resistance. Looking to setup TIP short next week. Even if this were 'only' a replay of the deflation scare from 12 months ago the spread would've about 50 bps to go.

Swiss 10y yield @ 0.99%. If you own one: maybe a good time to extend that St. Moritz chalet with a safe room and weapon's rack

Chopped off heads dropping to the floor as Euroswissy goes through the roof.

Arguing equities typically offer higher volatility-adjusted returns than corporate bonds is wrong on so many levels I don't know where to start.

Either we're talking about 'timing the market' or we're forgetting about that topic entirely and just talk about 'buying cheap stocks with a margin of safety and safe dividends'. You guys are jumping back and forth between disciplines.

I don't understand that argument. I was pointing out there's reason to believe 10 year future returns are likely to be below historical average. And you counter that by saying there is no alternative asset class so you feel forced to buy right now? You ignore the possibility that there may be...

Hussman has a nice graph in his recent commentary (http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110808.htm) comparing 10y projected total returns (nominal) with actual returns. Note the projection for the 1974 bottom (~7-9% annualized, before inflation) vs. the projection at the outset of the great early...

Instinctively, that appears logical. I checked a couple of random Dow Components from 1975 (IP, GT, DD, XOM, PG, EK) and was surprised to find that except for XOM all were around the same price or lower in 1982 compared to 1975. If you factor in 5% dividends and 9% average inflation for a...

BTP daily trading range now smaller than GBL for a 3rd day in a row. The European bureau of Cental Planning (ECB) must be very happy.

Very true. I find the entire idea of 'parking cash' very awkward. I'd never park cash in any trading instrument assuming it's 'safe'. For instance I own a truck load of bonds of all maturities and it's been a great ride for the last couple weeks. I don't consider myself parking my money in...

Whoever believes any foreign currency or risky asset is a safe place to park cash shouldn't be trading.

I am using the 2008 playbook looking at things unfolding; and apparently so is everyone else. Talk about recency bias. So is this really 2008? Or 1998 (giant bear trap)? Or maybe none of these? Is it human nature (fallacy?) trying to find 1:1 reference points in history.

Now following the Sept 2008 script what we'd need would be Sarkozy to come out and pull a Hank Paulson saying BNP & SocGen are not systemic and markets are 'well-prepared'.

The Brits are doing Club Med a big favor by bashing the Euro. The sooner the PIGS break out of Bundesbank chains the better for their economies.

Bond markets have recently declared rating agencies irrelevant.

Trichet ought to take a look at Dec '12 Euribor futs for a subliminal message by Mr. Market.

Another huge rally in TIPS. Quite a difference to 2008 when TIPS crashed alongside the equity markets starting on the Lehman bankruptcy Monday as inflation expectations briefly dipped to 0%. Looking to short TIP but only after it breaks down below its moving averages. Too dangerous to step in...

We had daily false bankruptcy and panic rumors during Oct 2008 and thereafter. Never indicated a bottom for longer than a few days or hours. I'll go a step futher... I'll rather buy after a couple of bankruptcies rather than hoping they can't possibly happen.

Maybe Paulson can join Pellegrini for a round of golf soon.

Bye bye Europe, was nice knowing ya. How long before Trichet flip-flops on his rate hikes a la 2008?