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Yep... The ICEX (Iceland's national "blue chip" index) lost arnd 94% in local ccy terms in 2007-08. The ASE (Athens Stock Exchange) lost arnd 90% from the peak in 2007.

I know this... Is it only DJI that you think can be described as "blue chip"?

I suppose we have to agree on the definition of "blue chip" first. If a country has a main index, where only its largest, most sound-looking companies are listed, is that "blue chip"?

Indices can go to 0 (or somewhere close to that), especially if you think about things in real terms.

That's incorrect...

It's just liquidity...

FWIW, the latest figures suggest that the Tudor BVI Global is now up small YTD (figures as of 15 Sep 2017).

As of last nite's close (VIX 10.17): 12 puts - 0.90 15 calls - 0.6 25 calls - 0.15 So the whole structure valued at -0.60, which means, IIRC, that it's lost money from inception. However, this may not matter, as the structure has apparently been rolled to Dec. I am not sure how the roll was...

Given how elusive the concept of a "fair price" isn't the first place, not even a bbg terminal is going to help.

There are a few reasons why this reasoning is not complete (it's not wrong, but it's only one of the many parts of the narrative). Firstly, even on a human level, as you know, official finances don't completely describe one's situation. For instance, at a certain point in life, doctors...

One of the things you need to know about the US deficit is that it's not solely a function of the country's domestic income and expenditure. The US is a superpower, for better or for worse, and the issuer of the world's reserve currency. That is one of the main reasons why it persistently runs...

If you agree with the BoC's assessment of Canada's nominal neutral rate being in the 2.75 - 3.75 range, where do you think this puts the US neutral nominal rate?

The silly douchebag doesn't really warrant all the ink spilled, honestly... He's just another Kim Kardashian-style celebrity, except in his case it wasn't a sex video that propelled him into the limelight.

There's nothing wrong with most of the stuff he talks about... However, he's definitely lost me with the whole "volatility is the instrument of truth" schtick.

According to the HSBC report, Eclectica's annual return has been 5.97% (not sure what period exactly this refers to, but they seem to have data going back all the way to the 90s). Eclectica's annual volatility has been 19.21% during the same period and max drawdown of 31.94% (in 2008).

Update on the Mammoth As of last nite's close (VIX settlement of 10.73): 12 puts - 0.51 15 calls - 1.20 25 calls - 0.30 So the whole structure is worth 0.09, which means arnd 0.22 further positive mtm PNL since last update.

To revisit this old thread, somewhat dedicated to China bears: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-07/down-240-million-on-his-seven-year-short-a-china-bear-gives-in

Apart from a few small niggles, I thought it was a brilliant film...

There is nothing wrong with debt a priori... The devil is always in the details, rather than the headlines. In this particular case, it's the balance of assets (both tangible and hypothetical) and liabilities that matters, rather than just the total size of the liabilities.

Regarding your BAU8 point, I think Canada is a very interesting case... Simply because Poloz and Co appear to be acting so very contrary to what has been currently accepted as universal central bank MO. I admire him for being so different, but it remains to be seen whether he is right...