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I said if there is an edge TSL and APS may be able to find it because these programs can discover completely unknown rules that are not combination of other known rules. One is still required to recognize that is an edge and this takes a lot of experience and effort. I also said that I do...

Can a retail LME trader know who is on the other side of the trade for his true motives? Can a retail LME trader ever know whether the commercial is a bluffer or not? Do you remmber what happened with Copper trading years ago? An Asian commercial trader was bluffing taking every single...

I think you are talking about different things here. You sound like a broker. Most people here are traders. Of course, brokers need order flow and pay for liquidity. But order flow is not an edge. When people in these threads talk about an adge they mean a system or startegy of some kind...

Tradestation should do the job. Easylanguage is ok. I think backtesting using tick data makes little sense if not fundamentally wrong. Backtesting makes more sense in position trading. Intraday orders affect price moves. When you backtest your program is not part of the market and your...

Wait a sec... Making money trading customer flow is a lot different than using customer flow as an edge, something you alluded to when you wrote: "Bill, there is no edge in trading unless you are trading customer flow for an investment bank..." So what did you mean that Ron did not...

Paranoid. What they "see" is not an electron but the trace such a "particle" leaves on their recording apparatus. According to quantum mechanics, this trace or image is affected by the observation and observer. So what they "see" is a mixture of an electron and the observer expectation of what...

This is fine but keep in mind that it offers no edge. In the last 20 years or so that backtesting programs are available, developers have tested and traded every conceivable permutation of known rules and indicators. The markets has faded each and everyone of them. High percentage of technical...

IMO what they are trying to do is like smashing two expensive watches one against the other and trying to figure out how they are designed to operate. At the end of the day I think this was a scheme by corrupted European educational system to suck money from state budgets since there is...

Then, I think they are not correct when they say the program discovers trading systems if the rules are already there. It is just a back-testing program with optimization capability and possibly a combinatorial rule formation. In contrast, TSL and APS discover new trading rules. Based on my...

Not at all. It all depends on your stop size as a percentage of your bankroll. If your stop per trade is something like $100 or 2% and you have a system that is robust enough then you can make money with a risk/reward ratio equal to 2 and a win rate of about 60%. Try bond or currency futures...

Are you talking about intraday, position or trend following systems. The difference is importnat. A trend following system with good filter for sideways markets may generate one or two traders per year. In 5 years you get 10 trades max or less. Does that mean it is not statistical significant...

I have #2, I'm getting #1 soon but I woudl love to try #3 for just a week to get a feel of genetic programming at work.

Thanks Tums. I will have it by tomorrow afternoon.

Yes, it is possible. Everything is possible in a Pareto distribution function.

TA does not predict the future. This is plain wrong. Do not even try it. TA is a tool that can provide probabilities of future price direction based on past prices. The probability is high only during rare occasions. In most cases, a correct application of TA will give you a probability...

I have APS and I think it is a fine piece of software. I just think they should add the profit factor as one of the criteria used in the search. This parameter is more important than success rate or profitability.

I keep hearing about algos and algorithmic trading but have never seen an example of anything that is really sophisticated. Yes, brokers use algos to search dark pools and exchanges for liquidiity and place customer orders but I don't think this is something too sophisticated. I sense...

1 M/15 = 66666.666666666666666666666666667 Gee nice number! 66666.666666666666666666666666667/250 = 266.66666666666666666666666666667 gee! another nice number. Way to go! Assuming stock market: 266.66666666666666666666666666667/390 minutes = 0.68 or about 2 trades every 3 minues...

Pinnacledata is excellent. You can link the contracts in several different way. Not free though.

Good post! If I recall correctly, one trader in the book "Market Wizards" followed a similar strategy in bond futures. Start small, add to position and move stops along the way.