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How can this possibly be true? (1) deflation (assuming the world isn't also deflating) means a higher real rate in US vs the world, therefore a stronger dollar, therefore less competitive export. (2) deflation makes lending more expensive. Not sure what rock you may live under but competing...

It's unlikely the treasury will upsize the auction; it might downsize; announcements tend not to move the market.

Even that's not true is it? Deflation is hugely problematic for industrial economies. For evidence, see all the US recessions (under their old names, 'Panics') from 1800 to 1920.

Maybe.... but it doesn't take a lot of due diligence to figure out that no one would be able to show they held billions of treasury bonds this way; everything is electronic. You'd imagine someone lending millions would know this. but maybe not.

zdreg is right; reverse splits and splits doesn't change the value of your holdings; issuance and buy backs do.

And risk the auction come thru and gap up 10 ticks? no thanks

I believe they were all converted into electronics form a long while back. Maybe these guys are duping some sort of savings bond coupon that were issued, like you said, some very long time ago? I find that extremely unlikely.

I still have no idea what this means. US Treasury Bonds are not bearer bonds. They are all registered and not issued with a certificate or any such things; How do you counterfeit us treasury obligations??

If that's the logical framework you are working under, I can well see why we really can't have a conversation; Think you'll do well as a revolutionary. You remind me of the writings of a young Lenin OF COURSE IT IS. This is the root of all evil. If you dont see it like this......I think we...

See, you aren't really having a conversation with me about this anymore. You are just throwing ideological slogans around. We are talking about QE purchases. You refuse to talk about that - even though you directed your first statements to it - because you can't really argue that point anymore...

I thought we were talking about QE purchases; not the greater issue of socializing losses. I don't disagree with you on the wider point. But there's a difference between GS (and everyone else, including 'main street') seeing their losses socialized and GS making money on QE2 purchases. The first...

I'm actually interested why you think that's the case; I hear it a lot, and I get that it's somewhat convenient to believe the great big assholes of the Street are benefiting from everyone's misfortune. Just want to know why you think it's the case. Don't think I'm telling you not to talk or...

How does that work? I mean, regardless of whether you think QE is a good idea or not (which you clearly don't; and I don't either), how is GS benefiting from it? I trade govt debt institutionally - I have no idea how GS or anyone is making money from the buy backs (in anything, it's the pension...

Milton Friedman didn't disagree with this either; In any case, why don't you go back to that momentum thread; that's probably a little more of your speed.

(1) Why do think the demand for UST will now not remain if rates go up to 3%? (1b), When the Fed does hike rates, everyone who bot the USTs at 30bps will have a principal loss on their balance sheet; Hey - we can now buy back the debt at below par if we want to draw down the debt load. (2)...

Of course, you are right; but growth in consumption -> rise in aggregate demand -> growth;

I'm not sure you grasp how the treasury bond market and issuance work. It simply doesn't work the way you think it does; First off, US treasury bonds are fixed coupon bonds. If the Fed jacks interest rate to 10% tomorrow, it won't change the interest payment of the debt that has already been...

US Dollar is the reserve currency (and until such time that another currency actually credibly supplements the dollar rather than vague suggestions like the euro, gold, or special-drawing-rights) and thus faces slightly different set of monetary policy rules. Further, if weaker dollar stokes...

When no one wants to buy US Govt debt except the Fed, the world at large would have already been reduced to sporadic settlements of survivalists bartering salted fish, lighter fluids, and women. Not sure we need to worry about interest rate.

... in a shit hole compared to what? Export countries do not benefit from having a strong currency vs the dollar. And why would the Fed be forced to raise the rate if the dollar tanks?