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i dont know much about inflation forecasting and rarely do I bother checking how much sense the forecasts make sense or make my own, but the 1.9% yoy for today's NZD CPI we have in the econ calendar looks like a shitty forecast. Regression shows it's 57% tradeables, 43% non-tradeables. Q2...

Going to close GBP short shortly. The currency doesn’t look too expensive against interest rates and given where EUR/USD is anymore, and don’t wanna bet on trade concern centered weakness after the Anelay letter. The US budget deficit is progressively deteriorating with TTM deficit of 406b in...

Getting rid of CAD steepener and long BA Z8 was a good move yesterday. I interpreted the statement that they could hike more but Poloz didn’t sound too hawkish at the q&a. In one of the answers to a question if they were willing to run the economy hot he answered that in such a long business...

closed BA Z8 @ 98.34, CGB U7 @ 139.62, BA Z7 @ 98.625, XT U7 @ 97.24, IR Z7 @ 98.20 Waited too long to get on AUD/NZD and missed today's action. Long 1 6A U7 @ 0.7598, short 1 6N U7 @ 0.72. Will add more at 1.04.

i need a privilege to be able to edit posts for 15 days, not 15 minutes. Obviously I am talking about TU against white+red, not TY, above.

Rolled CZK for 3 more months at 0.17 cost. AUD/NZD is getting more interesting. The way I read AUD/NZD below 1.05 is that RBNZ is potentially in a hiking mode but RBA is not. Last week’s RBA meeting confirmed that they were happy with accommodative stance. That said, last week we also had AUD...

Thanks, but there is nothing to applaud. Full-time market participants definitely put more effort in a week’s time than me in a few months’ time. I think it was s0mmi here who advocated that it’s absolutely essential to no-life the markets up to 15h a day. ------- I am also curious if putting...

First full quarter since the topic inception is over. Portfolio is 4.21% down in EUR terms, 2.86% up in USD terms from 10/02/2017 (50% USD, 50% EUR portfolio). PNL from trading is roughly -8200 USD (-0.8%). It’s confusing to analyse the results in this way as annualized SR in USD is 1.25 and in...

Random thoughts. Perhaps I don’t read enough blogs and editorial articles, but finally saw in the media this week the argument that looks the strongest to me against the loony idea of raising the inflation target: if you change inflation once, you’ll add a lot of uncertainty because in addition...

Probably more EURNOK volatility to stomach this week. At prev meeting Norges Bank removed clause about higher probability for a cut than for a hike, so I doubt they would make markets question their credibility and cut the rate now. PMI, IP, retail sales, unemployment, credit growth have been...

ha, totally wrong.

Got it all wrong on the Fed yesterday. USD stronger, curve flattened, fed path rate not downgraded. A bit more elaboration on my yesterday's thoughts about Canada. Boc's reasoning is probably removing accommodation for the sake of it, not responding to inflationary pressures. As such, they...

rolled -3 6E from Jun to Sep (part of eURNOK and eURCZK) 1.12795 / 1.13335, +1 NOK M7->U7 @ 0.1195, 0.11974, -2 6BM7 ->U7 @ 1.2812, 1.2848. CPI print messed up rolling plan as the intention was to close the June before the Fed meeting and reestablish at a better level after the meeting. Got...

Closed EDH8 short @ 98.49. Its yield is <10 bps down since the March meeting, yet inflation has been poor and I have a high conviction about 2017 core PCE being downgraded on Wednesday. Oil is slightly lower, so no support for headline pce. Probably bit lower median plot. Probably everyone holds...

Week 29.05.2017: Long EDU1-EDU2: -750 USD Short EDH8: -500 USD Short EURNOK: -3610 USD Short EURCZK: +732 USD Short GBP, short long gilt: -800 USD, +380 GBP Long bund against long gilt: +760 GBP, +1760 EUR I Z7-Z8-Z9: -375 EUR Long IR U8: -96 AUD (closed) Long BA Z8: +1500 CAD Steeper...

rolled -3 long gilts from june to sep @ 129.20, 128.13 rolled -5 CGB M7 into -3 CGB U7 @ 140.97, 145.4 rolled +2 bunds to sep @ 162.37, 164.36 rolled +5 XT M7 to XT U7 97.58, 97.565

Back here. For various reasons amount of time I am spending on this is woefully below what I had in mind in topic start. - closed long IR U8 @ 98.20 Week starting 08/05/2017 +7791 USD: Week starting 15/05/2017 -388 USD: Week starting 22/05/2017 -53 USD: By positions 08/05/2017 – 26/05/2017...

Weekly pnl: EDU1-EDU2: -750 USD Short EDH8: +625 USD Short EURNOK: -3127.5 USD Short EURCZK: 348 USD Short GBP, short long gilt: -388 USD, +330 GBP Long bund against long gilt: +660 GBP, -2640 EUR Long BTP against bund: +2400 EUR (closed pos) ER Z7-Z8-Z9: -1875 EUR Steeper CAD / flatter AUD...

closed long btp/short bund @ 160.49, 132.82. Will reestablish if this widens again. reduced BA Z8 long from 10 to 5 @ 98.80, but z7-z8 still looks bit too high versus eurodollars, the oil move down and not too strong econ data.

Weekly pnl: · EDU1-EDU2: 0 USD · Short EDH8: +1250 USD · Short EURNOK: -1598 USD · Short EURCZK: +756 USD · Short GBP, short long gilt: -1813 USD, +420 GBP · Long bund, short long gilt: +840 GBP, -1920 EUR · Long BTP, short bund: +3740 EUR (halved pos from 2 lot to 1 lot) · ER Z7-Z8-Z9...