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LOL...thanks for the laughs.

"Streak probabilities." Thats a new one. That Barry Bonds example. I would say that his chance of hitting a home run neither improves or worsens just because of his last hit. If there even is a change, I would even say it worsens. Wouldn't that be consistent with your "streak...

Understand? I neither believe or disbelieve that he is a "proven commodity" as you say, nor have I indicated anything of either. Besides, what's it take to be a proven commodity? It's all debatable. I was giving a general statement, using coins as an example. Are you saying that after 25...

What is your point in all of this? Sounds like you get your excitement from another person's angst especially when its someone of which you wish you could be in their position (ie. managing a sizeable and growing fund).

I would disagree with you wholeheartedly on this one. There is no rule that performance regresses to the mean. Simply investing in a manager because he is down, whether or not you believe in him, is akin to betting on heads simply because its landed tails the last couple times.

Thanks for the reply...I guess that is the problem. In creating a system, what more can you do than optimize it and fine tune it as "real time" data comes in. Otherwise, someone by now would have found the holy grail...

I was reading your website: >>>One way to help protect against that is to have an in-sample data set and an out-of-sample data set. You backtest your strategies always on your in-sample data. You backtest it, you optimize it, and then when you’re all set and you’re ready to trade it...

Section 1256 contracts include nonequity options... Does that mean S&P index options are considered section 1256 contracts?

Dug this thread up as I'm doing research on electing MtM or not. As I understand it, I don't think anyone answered this correctly (let me know if I'm way off). You elect MtM on stocks. You have a 20k gain which is converted to ordinary gain. You don't elect MtM on futures. As a...

All those charts show is that we are in a long term downtrend since 2000. Is there anyone on this earth that does not know that already? Unfortuneately, it gives little clue as to where the market may resolve itself from the current pullback. I would say there is more buying power...

I agree with you but the problem is this rally never began at the oversold levels of last July and October so it makes me more suspect. But I respect this last rally and the fact that the selloff has been on low volume and has been "so far" fairly contained. :confused:

Keep in mind the sample size. I read the Wizards books long ago. They interview what, 10-15 successful "Wizards"? And there have been how many tens of thousands of traders that have been trading over that period of time?

We're currently in a pennant formation in the market having pulled back from the spike rally, with volume and volatility tapering off. It's soon to be resolved...but will it be up since we might just be relieving the overbought condition before we continue the rally, or will it be down since...

Just checked his website this week, and it seems that he has removed the above performance chart from the public, though he's left his futures chart up which rebounded somewhat. Maybe he's just updating it...maybe he's hiding the big ugly...

By just the nature of a hedge fund, if you're successful and have been doing it for a reasonable amount of time, you're own wealth will be a large portion of the fund. This is because you will be compounding your wealth at a far greater rate than anyone else in the fund (+20% profits compounded...

I don't really understand what you're saying anymore! Must have been a long week. Point is I am not comparing 2 traders in a vacuum. If I was, sure I'll take the trader with the better faster equipment all else being equal. Because that trader can always turn off those extra monitors he...

Believe it. There are people all over the world trading with a single computer and single line and single quote feed. And they are profitable to boot. You need hypothetical to make a point? I'm telling you, in reality, you can be a profitable trader off a single laptop. I did it today.

Why is that hard to believe? Via internet connection, close your books for the day, Run TC2000, do a little research, print out your buys and sells for the next day, call your broker (GBS has his broker handle the orders) to place the trades. Can't be done on a single laptop? Please. It's...

And the regular drawdowns you see, as you stated, have been only 5-10% or 3% this year? That is truly (fill in the blank).

I've found that the longer you go at this the simpler it gets and you get. I've constantly eliminated nonessentials. And you start to realize your bottom line counts. Gary B Smith trades off a single laptop, even though he does EOD trading. It's the starters who look for all kinds of...