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yw ... of course, as we know, patterns can and do break down all the time. :)

The pattern lately has been after a large range on both Thursday and Friday of the previous week (20+ in RTH on both days) for Monday to have a 9-12 pt range. Good trading to all.

fwiw, many times I've found patterns that look good over a 1 year period and then suddenly die at the start of a new year. This is just the result of normal shifts in market behavior, to be expected in the course of a trading career. You might want to take a look at your original strategy and...

Nothing's ever ended up broken after I missed a move ... that's all I'll say.

Gap fill (and change) providing support so far. If they close it lower I suspect it will be a swift and dramatic move.

I noticed that tendency LC ... why do you think that happens?

Previous day.

p/d close 78.75 edit: or cash 84.53 update: cash just filled

Also gap still open .... and it's still Friday. :cool:

Gap fill +10 on the GDP report ...

Fib players stepping in overnight ...

2days is what I'm looking at. The IHS is stretched on ES if u use Globex ... clearer on SPX, but still a bit ragged.

I see 78.50 as the neckline break (p/d low). If that holds, then IHS still good, imho.

JSSPMK what do you have for the low of that dip? .... my QT chart shows one thing while IB, which is my QT source, says another.

Any (ex-)floor traders care to weigh in on the MA argument? I notice whenever you see on the floor at one of the exchanges a monitor showing a chart, there's always at least one MA plotted, unless that's VWAP or something else.

I will respectfully disagree. :)

No argument here. Simple backtesting will tell you whether historically there's any edge with whatever MA system is under consideration.

Of course nothing is perfect. But MA's can be very effective for long periods of time.

Averaging down (or up) on major indices over long periods of time (15-20 yrs +) generally works. Basically the shorter your time frame and the more concentrated the investment each time you average down, the riskier it is, imho.

Sure they do ... just the opposite way. :cool: