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Crude is pushing new highs for the day. Could continue to weigh on ES into the close. Edit: CL par busted.

Nymex close = green light for ES bulls? Then again, I'm thinking if crude trades above 100 in A.H. ES could really fall through the floor.

Was also 50% of the last move off the 02/24 low. (14.50 ... last gold line to the right on this chart). Question is, is it holding? I think we may see 09.50 or lower.

Thnx.

Today seems to be to be the day to roll to the next contract as March is no longer tradeable (at least @ IB). From what I can tell May has the next best volume ... can anyone confirm that? - thanks.

1:15 ET. One good thing about IB charts is the day's close is programmed in. :)

Alot of these short holiday sessions tend to be one-way days. Not as much time to count on a good intra-day retracement for a bailout.

That first stat I mentioned was a little ridiculous: 200 (+55) ... 255 -10% to 230 ... - talking about timing a 27% overshoot of the double (200) to get a mere 10% retracement. But the point is to start looking for a decent retrace once the double is hit, and for up to about 50 pts beyond...

Isn't #4 close enough? Markets usually anticipate such things, so, yeah, I could see the market turning on expectation of rising rates. The other thing, barring a black swan, could just be timing. The last significant up leg started at the end of August 2010, and big players will want to...

Duly noted, thanks. Both doubles in there (100-200, 150-300) each took a little more than 2 years. Also, retracements from the double point: 200 (+55) ... 255 -10% to 230 300 (+40) ... 340 -35% to 220

Great articles. Thanks!

I think it could work but you have to clearly define your filters for what is a trend. For example, say CL opened and moved down 120-ticks and it's now retraced +.60 off the low and is consolidating just above the 20ema ... will you buy the breakdown or short the breakout? Or say after CL...

I've never traded VIX futures and actually never held any futures contracts at all for more than a day. So I was just wondering if there are any successful VIX swing traders out there who could offer insight on which contract(s) it's best to play for a possible 6-month hold. Obviously there'd be...

I noticed that, and it brings to mind a question I have for everyone ... What, if any, effect will the fact that this latest double (666 to 1332) took LESS THAN 1/2 THE TIME as the previous double have on the timing and/or extent of the eventual significant retracement? I think I mentioned...

Is that the stat for Wed. of expir. weeks? (I seem to recall you mentioning this before; sorry if I'm asking you to repeat it ) :)

Shorting in a steadily rising market may not be the most efficient way to try and make money, but pick your points carefully and it can work. Probably a hell of alot easier than playing longs when the market finally starts to roll over.

Still contained within the RTH down channel, but a break above 33.50 makes 26 unlikely today, imho. 27.50 was rejected pretty hard on high volume, plus Uvol/Dvol is still almost 3:1. Also 27.50 was the exact 62% from yest. low to today's high.

26 still very possible as long as it stays below 32.75 ... only 50% retracement here @ 31.75.

Was thinking the same thing, especially after 2 very NR days. That said, we did hit the 666 X2 target, and shorts looking decent on the hourly.

To me, if anything, it's all about the PnL momentum. I'd almost prefer a big red day that ends only slightly red to a big green day that ends only slightly green. But either way, I believe the only thing that really should have any emotional affect on a trader, and therefore should be...