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Given all the bear threads you guys start, I wouldn't hold my breath. When I finally see nothing but bull threads, I'll fade this place in the opposite direction. I have a feeling that day is a ways off. Y'all take your alleged intellectual superiority way too seriously.

Problem w/Bernanke not moving is this: Productivity is my leading indicator; I did an intensive study of it a few years ago and figured out that it leads unemployment by about two years. It started dropping at the beginning of '06. At that time, I thought to myself that '08 was going to be...

Re the 10 year: No. If the 10 year priced in 50 and the Fed does 25, it will go up, and the yield will go down, in anticipation of a further slowdown in the economy. If, OTOH, it priced in no cut and the Fed does 25, it will go down and the yield will go up because the bond folks will be...

I'm relieved to see that the level of economic analysis from the usual folks doesn't rise above bedtime stories. The Fed will do 25, obviously. The real story will lie elsewhere. My guess is that initially the market won't like it, but that it will then warm up to the action. Tuesday morning...

25 on FF is only one thing, although for youze that're doing FF futures of course the most important. But then there's the discount rate, and the statement. The most hardline would be 25 off, no change on the discount, and a statement that is not friendly to further cutting. Softest, and not...

I can't foresee what's going to happen on Tuesday when the Fed moves or doesn't, but the larger trend is pretty easy to see. So, I'd say Greenspan is right, at least to the extent that things are going to get interesting. What I don't know is in which direction. The only thing I consider a...

Poole, along with yourself and the others, should do yourselves a favor and actually look at the data, rather than read some headlines. Attached is four graphs. The top two are from the household survey, the bottom two are from the establishment survey. All of them show the same picture. If...

Quoting from the post: Today, the U.S. Federal Reserve threw in $31.25 billion, the largest single-day infusion since Aug. 10. Earlier in the day, the European Central bank tossed in $57.4 billion in temporary funds to the money markets hoping, beyond hope, to "ease tensions" as Reuters coyly...

You have no idea, then. As I thought.

dhpar: Please explain why Trichet stood down on a rate increase. Explain why he has consistently had to inject more euros than Bernanke did dollars (notice also that Bernanke's moves follow rather than lead Trichet's, best as I can tell, which is very interesting indeed), both in absolute terms...

In context, that statement doesn't mean what you think it means. The context is an argument against regulation of some derivative markets, because of an inability on the part of speculators to corner those markets: The Commodity Exchange Act of 1936 and its predecessor the Grain Futures Act...

I'm bullish on the stocks, but neutral on the metal, for now. IMO, still consolidating within the 550-725 range established by the big runup last year. I think it will break over 725 rather than fall below 550, but I'd like to see the stocks, which usually lead the metal, firmly break to new...

I know squat about Fla. However, the idea that the cold NE cities are going down is just nutty. Chicago is doing OK, NYC is doing just fine so far, even Baltimore is doing OK, far as I can see, as I just took The Boy down to Hopkins for freshman year. It looks like a town that had bad times but...

Eh, like everyone else says, we've all had something like this happen. In my case, I get nailed every time I forget my allocations and buy or short some stock for larger than my standard percentage allocation. It's like the market knows when I make a stupid mistake like that, and proceeds to...

You guys need to study your history. It's really very simple: look at the Seventies. That era, financially, started in March 1968, with the ending of the London Gold Pool, which according to some was the de facto end of Bretton Woods. Officially, it came to an end in August 1971 when Nixon...

Yeah, I noticed where I am we had a cut a little while ago, and the dept where it was had a lot of long-timers in it who just took their package and added it to their retirements, and made out very well indeed. So, it's possible the rate will either hang steady or only go up slowly.

You make a one line post backed by precisely nothing and then say I'm talking in baseless generalities? Yeesh.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You and everyone else thinks that. Reflexive Pavlovian response around here it seems. Think about the business of banking, then think about what kind of incentive a flat curve would give you to play games to get better profits. Think, in short, like a businessman, not an...

Yes, I know that's possible. And note that I did say in my original post in a parenthetical statement "Influenced, not controlled." Please read and respond to what I actually write, not what you think I wrote. And if long rates had gone higher in response to a lower FF, that would have been...

...and all those pairs would be influenced by Fed policy. You're contradicting yourself.