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I like the number 69 a lot too. Also, sentiment is crazy bullish as compared to before the Fed cut as measured by the vol indices. I thought last week would be down, but I guess end of quarter window dressing screwed that up. Still, the situation has not been corrected. So, next week, now that...

I've heard it referred to as the "bear killer", because bears allegedly end in October. October '87's murderous plunge ended exactly one week later, because at that time trades used to settle in 5 instead of the present 3 days. Came settlement day, the market made what proved to be its final...

From the POV of a true gold bug, that is, one who believes all currencies will crap out versus gold, no. His logic is actually quite good. Stop fixating on the dollar.

Long term they're a good buy, since you get leverage to the gold price. Given their major volatility, I expect that if they can break 400 on the HUI, 600 is a reasonable next target for a pause, and that would be a nice 50% move, on average. Of course, the downside in these guys can be pretty...

Old people dying off? Hardly. The percent of the population over 55 and 65 is expected to grow very rapidly starting right about now, and won't even begin to slow until after 2020. The elderly population in the US is, believe it or not, at a trough. The peak is way out there on the horizon...

...simply fulfilling their function as Lender of Last Resort. It's in the name: Federal Reserve. If that graph looked any different, they wouldn't be doing what they're paid to do. For an example of what happens when that function isn't performed competently by a central banker with a clue...

I ran into this phony POS right at the beginning of my stay, and recognized the stench of a consummate conman and perpetual bankrupt idiot immediately. Which means I ignore him, and his disciples, without placing him on ignore. They are entertaining, after all. I find his determined opponents...

I'd agree. It's giving off all the signs of a sustained bull run, including the primary rule: bull markets never give you an easy entry. I speak from personal frustration: I put in a limit order this morning, which expired at the end of the day. So I'm stuck with trying to figure out whether...

May I simply reply: yes.

If you get rid of the Electoral College you also get rid of the last vestige of state vs Federal power, which correctly put is local vs mass opinion. This is obviously a legitimate stance, but you should be aware of what you're standing for.

Don't laugh: I do everything on Lotus. It's what I started with in 1985. I'm...old school, I guess. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

All the vol indices, which I'm looking very closely at now, are way down from recent highs. Too far too fast. I think next week is down across the board. If I had to guess, I'd say it'll probably be said to be down (in the press) due to the dollar drop and the rise in oil and gold, especially if...

To me the best long term plays are the sleeper bottoms. Gold in 1999 and 2000 - there was one big spike related to the signing of the Washington Agreement in October - did this. Tech stocks just finished one, and are now being noticed again. To me, right now, the big plays are gold in the...

I've been fooling around, both with the SPY and with IWM, with using the vol indices - respectively the VIX and the RVX - to give signals on these guys far as when to buy puts or calls. Just started, so not a lot of results yet, except for backtesting, but the backtesting came up with decent...

maxpi: wasn't directing the morality stuff at you. That was meant for those folks who keep beating up on Ben for doing this rate cut, as if he had any choice. You see all this stuff about him, but no one comments on Mervyn King, who followed the line those folks who beat up on Ben would have...

Heh. Interesting.

Erm, I think you meant rate cut, eh? Anyways, this is my point in all of this: Das' view sounds cynical, but it makes sense if you stop thinking about mortgages as a way for people to finance houses and think about them instead as a way for lenders to generate cash flow and to create...

That was my best trade ever. Picked up EOP in the mid 20's when they were borrowing money to pay the dividend. Sold the day before the deal closed, once I read a wise little article in the FT's Lex column that no one else was going to pay anything higher than what Blackstone had agreed to...

Satire. This guy's all about satire.

Really, I get tired of this constant, unceasing bs on here. Today, we heard from S&P that a wave of corporate defaults because of this credit squeeze is in the offing. So, which of you fine economists is going to argue that it's all about subprime, and has nothing to do with the real economy...