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thanks. i'll learn this... but it looks like time to maturity is the factor I wasn't quite grasping.

lets get a little more in depth here. simplified: if I buy 3% coupon bond for 100, then yield is 3%. If I buy 3% 1 yr coupon bond for 90, then yield is 13%. So if coupon on 10 yr ZN is 6% and I buy it for 100. Then effective yield is 6%. If I buy it for 107 (with 1 yr maturity) ...

anyone have a simple explanation for how ZN DEC 06 is priced at 107'030 (107 6/32) ? obviously not the same or even remotely close to the 10 year treasury price of 100-24/32 (eg bloomberg ) 10 Year 4.875 08/15/2016 100-24+ / 4.77 0-03 / -.012 09/08

you guys are silly. if oil gets cheap too quick, investment in oil discovery will slow again, thus we'll be in the same dilemma we're in now within short time. Look at EIA reports...

more thoughts: deflation can have similar net effects to hyperinflation. but what may be missing from all arguments is the large impact commodity prices play into both pictures. think about it: deflation: debtors are killed (individuals and businesses alike) because they're assets become...

hmmm... I see what you're saying and agree if China went through a massive currency devaluation. But the forces at bay seem quite the opposite ... at least in the immediate. my logic was pointing to the more immediate occurence of either strong yuan or even worse high protectionist tariffs...

And this is appropriate, because for years when home price appreciation (especially in expensive coasts and cities) was occuring, none of this showed up in inflation #s. But perhaps thats why the fed was willing to pause when energy was still high. They know how large a component of these...

conceptually, its sort of amazing a (mini) financially settled contract can precisely mimic physically settled ones solely based on the whims of the trading public. As if the only thing QG has to do with NG is the fact QG has the name 'natural gas' - and that gives the trading community...

some primitive questions from a newer trader, for someone that understands or knows the inner workings of these exchanges. 1) What mechanism is in place to ensure minis move the same as the small contract? Is it purely up to buyers, sellers, and arbs? Or does the exchange do something to...

from http://www.apachecorp.com/Explore/Explore_Features/200601/Topic_Report_Impact_of_Coal_on_Natural_Gas/ Spot coal prices have become very dependent upon natural gas prices and the two fuels will continue their interplay. Despite increases in spot coal prices, long term contract coal...

i think we're in for a bigger hammering sunday night or monday. Henry Hub Spot price on Fri: $US/Mmbtu) 5.18 -66 ¢]

warm winter = 5.00 avg winter = 6.50-7.00 cold winter = 9.00-10.00 just waiting myself for those damn arbs to step in. all trends reverse, and if you look closely in historic #s, many buying days this summer form a bell like curve over the nat gas strip. This to me suggests purely...

first point you're describing isn't volatility you desire.. ZN (10 year treasury future) dec 06 is a good contract to look at for better directionality. nat gas (QG) is the most volatile I think. And in fact, it does trend well, of course until you make your entry (then it reverses). :)

front months don't change from what they were. (i think they changed last month all ready) http://www.nymex.com/press_releas.aspx?id=pr20060829b

http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/

i'm in the same position as you (avg long 6.45 oct, but also short november avg 8.46 right now.) this is very unlike previous years because the spread between Oct and Nov is so gigantic. i'm hoping cash spot prices (6.40 today) will act as support for the futures, so perhaps this selling...

great source. i'm going to refer to this in another thread. thanks.

looking for a source of daily prices on nat gas seperated by individual contracts (not just front month pricing).

since the gap is about $2.00 between the 2 nearest months, my spread will benefit if that margin closes by any amount. At closing 2 days ago, the difference between Sep and Oct was something like $.30. So even if at expiration the difference is $1.00, I'm still better off.

on small size (ie 1-3 contracts) it will work. i entered qg short 8.49 nov, qg long 6.66 oct. Its approximate -- and when i eventually decide to close the position, I may do it when the spread is tighter during the day (or wider at night if its to my advantage). now so far, prices are at...