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Damn the Fed is taking a more hands off approach lately. Can't bet with the Fed, can't bet against them.

You're right ... I forget the mechanism for the blowup of excess bank reserves (started ramping up Oct 1 08, thought it was TARP when I wrote this .. but obviously was a fed program; I forget which one... pick an acronym: TAF, etc..) The point being the same, M2/M3 unaffected while the money is...

Just for the sake of fascination, I wonder what would happen if the Fed decided to do a double whammy --- pay off all outstanding private debts in society given some sort of criteria, a sort of reset to benefit debtors, then simultaneously bump up Fed funds to 15% for a period of a few years to...

Is this any different from a 1 year TARPing (with exception to the better rates and terms the bank gets from here), where the result will just be a blowup in the ECB money base offset by an equal blowup in excess reserves ?

A US dollar devaluation is in the cards if we are not to go the liquidation route - the 'in between area' is here. Otoh, a dollar devaluation will be enormously stimulative. With that said, M2 is no longer rising despite quant easing efforts. And with that said, imagine M2 if the Fed...

Does dark pool off exchange volume factor into this analysis?

For us to have a strong recovery, we need inventories down.. So I view NAHB #s in the same light as building permits and lower inventories... The less the better, esp in the face of the next deluge of foreclosure supply. I find it more confusing that the equities tend to rally on data showing...

In one year, M2 is up 10%.... But in 3 months since the Fed started buying mortgages and treasuries (600B+ worth), M2 is unchanged. So is it fair to conclude that M2 might be flat on the year or even negative if the Fed wasn't buying assets? I think so.

Correction: you can definitely write calls on gold. Bulky? One of the highest density stores of wealth there is. The opposite of bulk. Wide bid/ask? August gold is 935.80/935.90 as we speak on a sunday evening, narrower than S&P futs ... And yes, you can even lease it out and earn a...

I don't know one person (in the real world) who has any meaningful amount of gold. Yes, the gold bugs are long, but they are always in by definition. Owning physical gold is still a fringe concept... I don't live in middle America .. maybe the story is different there.

nitro - just so you know, ninjatrader lets you capture and replay a feed. So you already have this feature. Problem is, ninja needs to be on the whole time to record the feed, and your instruments must be selected ahead of time.

The congress represents what America is... If you bitch about congress, you bitch about the 'average American'. So in the end, 'we' get what 'we' deserve. (disclaimer: not saying I like 'we'... I'm an anti-nationalist, anti-religion type person ... An outlier against the 'patriotic' American...

Well if the Feds really are doing it (I doubt it), then eventually they will make the fundamentals better. If you print enough, they will come. Efficient market backwards.

This will work very well... ..Until the day it doesn't. And you may look back and say you wasted a ton of time.

BTW, to moderator: I originally posted this in trading forum instead of options b/c it wasn't a question about options, but something prompting discussion of general market consolidation and direction. That said, any thoughts on S&P in the very near term?

Totally agree.

Exactly the dilemma.. 9 pts from post the employment report. Worth around 3 right now .. #2 would make me feel worse, but the probability of #1 occuring is probably 80% right now.

I have 6 days on them left. The very fact that I'm posting about them is a sign this is a losing trade. (and that means I should cut it) Whoever can resort to commenting on this thread without using it as an opportunity to rip me apart, I commend you. And if you rip me apart, I don't commend...

If you take yourself seriously and are not lying, you are either very rich by now, or very deluded. If you can prove a market is more predictable on any timeframe versus another, you are a genius. I maintain this is not true.

So you are basically saying that you want something that changes value based on the front month quote... So if nat gas is $4.00 now, you want it to be worth $4.00, and if front month is $6.00 when december comes, you want your investment to go to $6.00 ? I don't think what you are asking for...