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I'm saying any buyers of Euro at this point are either: 1. Taking profit on shorts 2. Central Banks diversifying at an attractive rate 3. Buyers who are attempting an intraday bounce or RSI ride 4. Hedge funds 5. Folks who are playing long term Reshorted at 1.2280

I don't know if I'd agree with your statement on market perception. Just like when in December people were saying the Euro was "quite high" at the old record of 1.29 and change.

I lost very little compared to what I've made this week. :) This week I actually broke my weekly record, and it's not even over yet. As for the Euro Bulls - it's not Euro Bulls at all. It's profit taking and some oversold unwinding. Happens naturally in any trend. Also some pre-ECB...

Stop was hit. Watch...it'll turn around now after taking out my stop. :(

Short to medium term is obviously down, but this bounce is getting close to my stop. If it hits, oh well. That's the way the cookie crumbles.

CS - read yesterday's Jack. I reshorted at 1.2240 with a 1.2285 stop. Everyone is just now getting behind the EUR fall. We've got a few hundred pips left in this fall. I agree with your synopsis on the 1.17ish range. Just keep stops tight.

Went long USD/CAD @ 1.2460

Should know something by tonight. Dutch have been at the polls all day.

I know it's dangerous, but I re-shorted again even after that. It's just too easy, I know I'm going to get burnt but tight stops will prevent me from losing more than a fraction of what I made. Currently short @ 1.2279. Will hold out until the Dutch No is final.

Against better judgement, I shorted the EUR bounce today and was glad I did. Just closed it at 1.2280 for about 50 pips. This is fun, but getting increasingly dangerous.

This conversation is dangerously like - from the opposite end of the spectrum - the doomsday commentary quoted all throughout the world when the EUR was running up to 1.36. Back then it was "If central banks decide to massively shift reserves..." or "If foreign investors stop financing the US...

I think you're fine with the short :)

Sheesh...just made a boat load shorting all the way down. Chirac appointed De Villepin and the EUR just tanked. He should have done that at 1.36 to fix the EUR. :) I think I'm out. This is the point where Greed whispers "You can get even more - short again!" But Common Sense goes: "Take...

I never thought the big guys were about to liquidate. They can afford to wait out most storms, I'm sure. You and I, however, are not so lucky - and therefore we use stop losses, etc. to protect ourselves. Re the Euro, they're now talking about a TV poll saying the Dutch show a 60% rejection...

Well, we're in definite need of a bounce somewhere here. But then again, we kept looking for a bounce back when the Euro was rocketing towards 1.36. Why are posts disappearing?

I live in Moscow, Russia. And if you disagree, you are absolutely welcome to post - as you did. Sarcasm is better left to other threads, however. Incidently, the "abyssmal" comment came right from Thompson. I'm sure they have some good sources. Currency markets get all antsy when a bomb...

From a technical basis, a small one (if you're an intraday player). From any other standpoint whatsoever, no. That's my perspective. However, I will say that the structural problems that made people go nuts on the EUR last December are technically still in place. Oil is flirting the mid...

Euro breaks 1.2478 - the Fibo 66 is now dying. I told you - the vote NO would have a delayed effect. And now, as the EUR passes this level, it'll have a cascading effect as people bail out of EUR/USD - therefore buying USD. Of course it still has to break through. :)

That's my point entirely. I know the EUR broke 1.25 last week. That was a dollar rally. THIS, however, is a EUR fall, and not a dollar rally. Look at your EUR crosses. As you say, the dollar isn't getting any better. The EUR is dropping, but nothing else is. Why do you suppose this is...

well, wtf?? I see ZERO-impact. and I don't think I'm seeing things. fxs ---------------- Well look a bit closer then, or get new glasses. The EUR opened at 1.2580 after staging a short covering comeback late Friday (instead of dropping heavily like it had the last few Fridays). Now...