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  1. W

    The Merrill Lynch Sale At 22 cents/$1....Will End Up Far Less Than 22 cents....

    it's a start. There isn't a clear market value yet, but a 78% haircut is a lot...I don't care how toxic those assets are, they're not worth nothing. Why would a fund buy them if their valueless? I think they'll make a killing. Distressed debt investing is one of the most profitable industries.
  2. W

    who is making less than 20% a week roi in this great market

    I'm up 10% YTD. I use no leverage. Equity/long short. I aim between 10-20% per year, with a slight negative beta. Basically, I aim to offer value to my family investors who would normally hold an index fund. By offering a slightly negative correlation to the S&P with a moderate absolute return...
  3. W

    Small time Daytraders - what is a good return?

    basically, daytrading is a stupid business. Capital doesn't scale. You have huge variance in your expected earnings. You face gambler's ruin. Unlike most businesses, the longer you're profitable, your business isn't any financially stronger. You're just as likely to blow out. As stated, I'd...
  4. W

    If I was a UHNWI...

    I'd be in private equity right now. Everybody on here keeps asking-where do I put my money? 5 years out, any newly formed private equity fund is going to make a killing. The last time PE funds were enjoying 20%+ IRR was following the dot com crash. Valuations are low enough now that companies...
  5. W

    The airline stocks bottom-fishing thread

    better to go long aerospace. I'm long ERJ. BA may hold some real value. Enough emerging market carriers will pick up the slack for falling demand, particularly for fuel efficient jetliners. Airlines are always so speculative. ERJ and BA are real value investments. I'm aware that Steinhardt...
  6. W

    Short US Steel Maker

    ^the above is correct. U.S. automakers are price takers, not price makers in steel.
  7. W

    Go ahead get yourself into massive debt that you can't afford, the American dream

    Canada ranks number one on the Human development index. There are things I hate about Canada (protectionism of financial services, lagging telecommunication standards, ridiculous taxes within certain provinces) yet Canada is in many ways much better for middle class folk. Economic mobility is 3...
  8. W

    Whats' it like working on a trading desk at a buldge bracket Ibank??

    I have to admit, most guys on prop desks in NY are short and ugly, and as a result, extremely insecure. I was at a cocktail party in NY full of Ivy alumni, and that was my read. The cool, good looking, smart talking sales and marketing guys were way cooler, and had much more enviable lives. They...
  9. W

    Interest rates.

    can we set up two forums, one for people who live in the middle of nowhere and believe in retarded conspiracy theories, and one for people who are literate and have college (or equivalent) education? This forum is so divided. You have people with advanced technical degrees and people who...
  10. W

    Interest rates.

    Hey pal, why don't you get your GED, take a few community college courses, and then we can have this conversation? I hope to God you're a live trader.
  11. W

    Go ahead get yourself into massive debt that you can't afford, the American dream

    I'm against every bail out except this one. They (Fannie and Freddie) were set up with the implicit guarantee of the govt. If they were to fail, it would result in a loss of confidence in the U.S.'s credit worthiness as a whole, thus sending the dollar plummeting, and increasing interest rates...
  12. W

    deep value play

    AUO: Optronics 3rd largest maker of flat panels p/e: 3.9 p/s: .62 p/b:.99 ROE: 26.5% ROIC: 18.5% Shares tumbled despite yoy earnings growth tripling. Fears of oversupply could compress margins in the 3rd quarter, but the market has most likely factored that in. In the not so long...
  13. W

    drunk ?

    Nah, classic case of a)agency problems/"free rider phenomenon" and b) moral hazard on behalf of the Fed...
  14. W

    Starting/Working for a Hedge Fund

    ^we're talking about two different things. You're talking about starting a real hedge fund to manage institutional money. Most are interested in a small fund/CTA/LLC....managing a few friends and families money, probably a small % of their net worth (hopefully). I agree, though....the pikers on...
  15. W

    Starting/Working for a Hedge Fund

    ^um, did you apply to a prop desk at Goldman recently? Do you honestly think you get there purely through meritocracy? Look, I have friends that will get spots at I banks. Most have connections. I'm objectively smarter than almost all of them finance wise, and have a decent pedigree. Yet I'm...
  16. W

    what's the next hot sector?

    actually, a lot of debt consolidators shares have done very poorly. Look at PRAA. On a larger scale, I think BX is a good play (although I don't own shares). They will make a lot on distressed debt investments. They have smart enough guys to actually value it.
  17. W

    what's the next hot sector?

    I saw the Economist front cover, too... I wish I had a way to play Oman and Bahrain...
  18. W

    what's the next hot sector?

    Another company I like-LPL...LG displays, South Korean company.... Trades at 4.5 X earnings and 2X cash flow, has insane margins. Another deep value play-it trades at just 1.2X book value...very odd for its sector. A lot of these emerging market companies can really stray from their...
  19. W

    what's the next hot sector?

    Any thoughts? Where's the sector rotation going? Just a thought: the market rebounds 27%, on average, before corporate earnings rebound. If you look for deep value plays, that rebound can be quite a bit bigger. I bought shares today in ERJ. Brazilian supplier of small to mid size jet...
  20. W

    Deserpate to find a trader job...help?

    Cornell really is the worst Ivy.... How did you pass your writing requirements? I don't get it.
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