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  1. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I’m starting to wonder if that could have been it on the downside for September. Just putting it out there… Considering the Globex long tonight.
  2. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Current action is an account killer. Needless to say, this day didn't play out as I expected. Small sample size, so in hindsight I should not have been as confident in the short side for today. Should be interesting to see how the rest of the week plays out. Maybe we're stuck until post CPI.
  3. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Boring consolidation day. Still a 50.50 point range, though. Doesn't seem like this day is going anywhere by the Close today. Surprise me. :)
  4. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    The last time we saw a similar week in magnitude (% change) and structure was early 2022. The following Monday printed the week low before closing the week with a green candle, but, that Monday first dropped 172.75 (!) points in RTH before rallying 197.25 points to close the day green. Wow...
  5. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    You're gonna love this one: We can go sideways, too. LOL. :) Joking aside, I'm just suggesting being wary of the idea that the market has to do this or that. Ultimately, the market's gonna do what the market's gonna do. When the market broke out higher November last year I saw several people...
  6. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Could continue dropping, too. :) I'll see if I can find any historical analogues tomorrow and if there's any clues about the next move.
  7. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    You keep 100 % of the first $10K. After that, it's a 10 % cut to the firm. Disadvantages with Topstep: - You need 30 positive days of $200 or more to withdraw your full balance (90 %). I dislike this rule a lot. After 30 days you can withdraw daily, though. I already withdrew a small sum to...
  8. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Thanks. Drawback = drawdown? If so, the initial drawdown is $4.5K per account. I believe it trails higher as your account balance increases, but it stops at $0. So, right now the possible drawdown is the entire account balance.
  9. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Someone inquired about my linked accounts a while back and I was honestly surprised to not see more questions on that. I'm not sure how common it is to trade linked accounts? I did talk to a professional trader a long while back now and at the time being he claimed to be trading multiple linked...
  10. L

    Is Tom Hougaard the real deal?

    I've considered becoming a vendor. It seems infinitely easier than actually trading. Zero risk. Bigger returns. No need to sit in front of the screens on a daily basis. If I create a course which I sell for $250 and can generate 1000 sales (seems possible considering the huge amount of people...
  11. L

    Advice to all newbies

    100 % true. The reality is that even if you have a profitable system you may not be able to execute it in real time with actual money on the line. Trading is rigged against human nature and only the few can actually do what's required with money on the line. Of course, most people don't even...
  12. L

    Advice to all newbies

    Of course not. Which is why I said both is needed. :) If you can't master and understand yesterday's market on a historical chart, there's no way you'll understand tomorrow's market on a live chart. It's no different from how a pilot will start out in a simulator. There's a learning curve...
  13. L

    Advice to all newbies

    I would argue both is needed. If you're only forward testing it would take you one full year to experience one full year of trading. If you're back-testing/back-checking intensely, you can in theory and practice go through 10 years in the same amount of time you're just watching a live chart...
  14. L

    Advice to all newbies

    Study the markets and take your own notes. Back-test/back-check continuously. That's how you learn. Not just blindly trusting or putting faith in some random author that may or may not have a clue. If you're still reading and studying books by others after 10 + years you're a newbie still...
  15. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    That would be fun. However, it seems to me that often by the time the market seems to confirm a direction or get everyone convinced we're going up or down - that's just about the time where it reverses direction. At least that was the pattern during the mild bear market in 2022. People got...
  16. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    I always keep an eye on NQ. Most of the stocks in NQ are also in ES. Several times over the last few weeks I've commented on how ES attempts to rally, but NQ is lagging behind effectively killing any attempts at rallying higher. Yesterday, ES had a strong initial move higher in RTH while NQ...
  17. L

    FYI: Historically the Next Two Months are Down

    Some of the comments in this thread didn’t age well…
  18. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    The September script is playing out nicely so far having already retraced 47 % of August's range closing down 4.25 % on the month today. I can't pretend to have any idea where this is going, but wouldn't be shocked if we do take out the August lows by end of month.
  19. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Nah. Still perma-bears waiting for ES to hit triple digits again. :)
  20. L

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Where's @v-shape-0DTE? God knows we would have heard it if we were up this week. :)
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