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No Multiple closes, that is not what I meant! When a said "a few times," I was referring to myself mentioning that the monthly candle must close below the 40ma "definitely"! I mentioned the word "definitely" a few times in this thread. I started learning this in the 1980's and using it...

To address a few of your concerns: (1): The whipsaw that took place on March 2008 candle closing slightly below the 40ma and then closing back above the 40ma on April 2008: A: Did you notice me mention a definitive close below the 40ma a few times? A definitive close below the 40ma is -1.5% or...

Your missing my point. This isn't an end of year predictor of a bear market. Its anytime "whenever" the first candle that has a monthly close below the 40ma occurs, the months (or years) following that close are a bear market. Lets look at a close up the months your referring to: [Dec 99 and...

Your 100% correct, it won't help the intermediate or short term trader. I was simply trying to report the condition the market was left in at the close of 2018, using the most time proven method that I know of. ironchef, thanks for the welcome back to CA, but it was just a temporary visit...

I have been following this long term investing chart technique since the 1980's and its never been wrong.

The 2018 market close for the major indexes finished: SP500: -7% Dow30: -6% NASDAQ: -5.5% [SP500 (black line), Dow30 (blue line), & Nasdaq (brown line) performance comparison (in percentage) for 2018]...

Its not the job of the Federal Reserve to worry about the stock market. They simply look at all the data and then make decisions based on that data. They know for sure that the last two Fed Chiefs left interest rates too low for too long, and the side effect of that error is a stock and...

For a Quant to have negative years, it means the inability to adapt to various circumstances, probably due to a trading a singular system containing only singular logic. You cannot successfully trade every possible aspect and circumstance the market dishes out with only one form of system...

In the next few days we will find out if the 2 month trade range (low 2600's to low 2800's) will either: 1: hold near the bottom of the range and go back up near the top, or 2: break down to make lower low's.

In last 10 years (2008 to 2017), the SP500 has only had a down monthly closing in December 1 time (2015). It gives hope for a Santa rally next month in December. [SP500, 10 years, monthly candles, 40 month moving average]...

The accuracy of a programmed option trading system is based on the precision of the options traded. For myself, January 2, 2019 will be 21 years of option trading, testing, developing, and programming on the OEX, QQQ, IWM, DIA, & SPY options. Here is what I learned and its my Holiday...

The Major indexes: SP500 (black line), Dow30 (blue line), Nasdaq (brown line), on this 2018 percentage gain/loss "year to date chart," is pretty much at "net zero" for 2018.

[Inverse Correlation] [Short to Intermediate Term Downtrend] Below is a 2 month chart of the SP500 with daily candles and the 50 day moving average. Notice the SP500 is below the declining 50dma, which indicates a short to intermediate term downtrend. [SP500, 2 months, daily candles, 50dma]...

[Gaps Fill] One of the lessons that really sticks with me from my Pristine training about 20 years ago is: "Gaps Get Filled." What they mean by this is if you are in a Downtrend and the market has a Counter-Trend Rally within the Bigger Picture Downtrend that leaves "Gap Ups," like you see on...

I use to be a tree-hugger until I moved to Montana and then Washington State. Now I say, "cut them all down before they burn all summer long!" No kidding, 3 years in Montana: smoke from fires all summer long every year. 4 summers in Washington state: smoke from fires all summer long 3 out of 4...

Its funny you mentioned that because after living in Washington state for only a few years, we are selling this house and are going to move back to CA for the 3rd time in 19 years. WA has too much summer smoke and the winters are too cold.

I know for a fact that one or more of the largest 5 banks in the US have already packaged and started selling Mortgage Back Securities again. The same garbage that created the 2008-2009 financial crisis. You have to remember that the previous administration installed new regulatory laws to...

Here is an interesting thought: (Please don't misinterpret my meaning) (A) In the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds (MBS: Mortgage Backed Securities) started the Crisis that took down the economies of the world. In baseball terms, Real Estate Mortgage Bonds were the "Lead...

From a "long term" investor perspective, the uptrend is still intact. On this 4 year monthly candle chart of the SP500, the SP500 bounced off the 20ma in the month of October 2018 and has stayed above it. We really do not have a true bear market unless the SP500 has a monthly closing candle...

It will be real interesting to see if the SP500 can break out above its 200 day moving average (blue line, 2,764) and hold it. [SP500, 3 months, daily candles, 200dma (blue line: 2,764)