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  1. J

    My option trades

    Ryan, Your ability to emotionally handle those losses is the difference between an overly cautious trader and a good trader. That courage is what made it possibly to turn $1,700 into $6K or $7K in a month! That's totally amazing! One interesting thing you might look at to help...
  2. J

    My option trades

    Ryan, I have been following this thread since inception and I have noticed that you are trading smarter and smarter as time goes on. Each trade has less risk with respect to your total account value and your not afraid to take any amount of profit when you think that trade has been open long...
  3. J

    Becoming an independent trader

    I have been in your shoes about 13 years ago when I was 50. I became disabled and had to figure out a way to at least make a supplemental income. I didn't have a large sum of money to start my account with, so I choose option trading because the leverage made it eventually possible to have a...
  4. J

    So it finally happened.

    I have said this before several times, but let me repeat it one more time, "More than 50% of the battle with options is having a complete trade management system." 1: No one trade should have the ability to tank your account by more than -2.5%. That means you would have to have an almost...
  5. J

    How Do Options Make Predictions?

    No I don't know and don't care. Even if these transactions were sell to open transactions, that means "somebody" is still buying them. Who in their right mind would buy $2,000 option contracts in large numbers with very little time left before expiration, unless they are smarter than the...
  6. J

    How Do Options Make Predictions?

    This simplicity of this method I developed several years ago might be helpful to the originator of this tread in answer to his original question: "How Do Options Make Predictions." Here is an interesting method for predicting short term SPX direction for the next trading day, using option...
  7. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Neke and Div Arb, I agree with you completely. What holds me back is some very bad mental scars when I started out option trading 10 years ago. I knew nothing in the beginning and totally nuked 2 or 3 accounts and had to refund them. I had no concept of money management and would place 50%...
  8. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Thanks dipper. I appreciate both your compliment and your skepticism.
  9. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Your welcome, I am happy to be helpful. The 4 most important things that I can say to a beginning option trader is to be Systematic: 1: Find something that works 65% to 75% of the time and do it over and over, regardless how dark and opposing the market looks when your entering the trades. 2...
  10. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Trade completed, updated results attached to reflect new trade.
  11. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    When you consider that today the SPX is above its rising 10dma, 20dma and 50dma, I would have to say that today's call trade is in the direction of the short term (20dma) and intermediate term (50dma) uptrend, wouldn't you?
  12. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Just bought SPY May 140 calls @1.60 Bracket set at: 2.00 sell limit 1.20 stop
  13. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Yes, most trade signal entries are placed below the closing price. The entry price the programs select for a particular signal is dependant upon: 1: strength of signal level; 2: strong or weak direction (trend or counter-trend); 3: first signal in a new direction; 4: signal is following a...
  14. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Trade complete. Stop limit of 1.60 had a split fill: 5 @ 1.60 5 @ 1.61 Attached results updated to reflect current completed trade.
  15. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Thanks neke, That's a better explaination of the system then my last reply to atticus!
  16. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Atticus, Your totally correct for today. The system output was the "Weak"(Weak B) direction of the market today and playing the weak direction was definitely the "counter-trend" direction today. But it also equally outputs the "Strong" direction of the market at least half of the time...
  17. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Atticus, I dont use O.I. (open interest), P/C ratios (put/call ratios), or option volume in this system. (I do however have a manual input adjustment for volatility which hasn't been changed yet in 2008.) There is two parts of the equation in this system: 1: "Option price movement" trend...
  18. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Just bought SPY May 141 puts at 2.10 Bracket set at Limit Sell: 2.65 Stop: 1.60
  19. J

    Purely Mechanical Option Trading

    Thank all of you who are interested in this thread, and for those highly critical and don't see the purpose, its Ok, I can respect that. My purpose here: 1: is to show its possible to trade a system that doesn't use charts, market fundamentals or new events. 2: to show its possible to...
  20. J

    Spx 1400

    You can see from this long term 10 year chart of the S&P500, once the 40 week moving average bearishly crosses under the 80 week moving average, the 40wma becomes overhead resistance and it usually continues as overhead resistance for 1 to 2 years. You can look back for a couple of decades and...
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